ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ABG // Asbury Automotive Group Inc

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001144980 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations
$198.03 ▼ -1.24 (-0.62%)
MKT CAP: $3.58B • VOL: 362.1K
ABG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 49/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
49 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +66% vs NI +14.3% • ROIC-WACC +5.4% • Z 2.6
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 40% • VS 200D -2% • RSI 65.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 8 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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ABG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.42%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $193.5H $199.3L $193.5C $198.0VOL 500.8K
RES: $207.5SUP: $155.3SMA50: $188.4SMA200: $203.4
$264.0$235.9$207.8$179.7$151.6RES $207.5SUP $155.3$198.02026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
ABG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) exhibits 17.1% gross margins and 14.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), balanced against a 3.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 17.1% gross profitability converts into 4.8% operating margin and 14.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.0% // GM: 17.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.7% paired with -0.97% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.7% // FCF YLD: -0.97%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.60 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.60 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 7.3x trailing P/E (6.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 7.3x // EV/EBITDA: 3.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $198.03 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations require continuous execution to defend 2.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.7% // D/E: 0.60x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 6.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.16).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 7.3x
FORWARD P/E 6.8x
EV / EBITDA 3.5x
FCF YIELD -0.97%
GROSS MARGIN 17.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.8%
NET MARGIN 2.7%
ROIC % 14.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $27.41
DEBT / EQUITY 0.60x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 65.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.16
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ABGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $181.20
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>