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Lear Corporation (LEA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$122.29 +3.25% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $122.77

Lear Corporation (LEA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.84B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LEA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LEA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Lear Corporation (NYSE: LEA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $122.29 (+3.25% 1D, market cap $5.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LEA ranks #411 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LEA compare to MOD and GNTX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), LEA carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.3x, gross margin of 6.5%, and ROIC of 8.8%. By comparison, MOD (Modine Manufacturing Company) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 60.8x, ROIC 17.0%, cap $6.90B) and GNTX (Gentex Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.1x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $4.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GNTX leads on earnings multiple (11.1x) while ALV leads on capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LEA?
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Per LEA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000842162), Lear Corporation generated $23.26B in revenue (-0.2% YoY), $436.8M in net income, and $527.2M in free cash flow against $14.84B in total assets and $3.47B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $122.77 (+0.39%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 2.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D
Cash (14)Whales (8)SEC (12)Macro (6)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$158 Bull$121 Base$95 Bear
📬 FREE LEA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LEA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LEA SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.3% FCF Margin ($527.2M FCF) & 6.5% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.3) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$119.38-1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$117.89-0.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$116.89+4.6% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$122.29-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LEA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, LEA faces multiple-compression risk if 13.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($121.76) or 200D SMA ($128.40) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($121.19) toward Bear Floor ($94.53).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LEA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LEA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your LEA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $122.29: 81.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $94.53
$7,730
$-2,270 (-22.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $121.19
$9,910
$-90 (-0.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $157.85
$12,908
+$2,908 (+29.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$12674%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$14869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$10858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LEA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of LEA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LEA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.81%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $117.4H $122.3L $117.4C $122.3VOL 841.3K
RES: $149.4SUP: $112.4SMA50: $121.8SMA200: $128.4
$152.9$142.2$131.4$120.7$109.9RES $149.4SUP $112.4$122.32026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LEA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LEA Butterfly Map → + Track LEA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
4.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LEA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LEA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LEA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LEA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #411 of 1009 ⚔️ MOD vs LEA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LEA vs. MOD, GNTX, ALV, DORM)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lear Corporation (LEA) ranks #411 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #240 by equity capitalization ($5.84B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GNTX leads on earnings valuation at 11.1x trailing P/E, while ALV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.2% ROIC and 19.2% gross margin. ALV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with LEA at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LEA ACTIVE
Lear Corporation
D+ 56/100 13.3x 6.5% 8.8% +3.25% $5.84B Benchmark Subject
MOD
Modine Manufacturing Company
D+ 54/100 60.8x 23.0% 17.0% -4.95% $6.90B /mod-vs-lea →
GNTX
Gentex Corporation
C 65/100 11.1x 34.2% 14.8% +3.47% $4.19B /gntx-vs-lea →
ALV
Autoliv Inc.
B- 71/100 11.5x 19.2% 23.2% +4.39% $8.46B /alv-vs-lea →
DORM
Dorman Products Inc.
C+ 68/100 19.3x 42.1% 12.9% +2.44% $4.01B /dorm-vs-lea →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000842162 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lear Corporation (LEA) reported GAAP revenue of $23.26B (-0.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $23.31B , and -0.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $436.8M, operating cash flow of $1.09B, and free cash flow of $527.2M (-6.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, LEA closed FY2025 with $14.84B in total assets against $3.47B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.97, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $23.26B $436.8M $1.09B $527.2M $14.84B $3.47B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $23.31B $506.6M $1.12B $561.4M $14.03B $3.28B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $23.47B $572.5M $1.25B $193.3M $28.16B $6.59B

3. LEA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LEA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Lear Corporation (NYSE: LEA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $122.29 (+3.25% 1D, market cap $5.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LEA ranks #411 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LEA compare to MOD and GNTX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), LEA carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.3x, gross margin of 6.5%, and ROIC of 8.8%. By comparison, MOD (Modine Manufacturing Company) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 60.8x, ROIC 17.0%, cap $6.90B) and GNTX (Gentex Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.1x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $4.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GNTX leads on earnings multiple (11.1x) while ALV leads on capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LEA?

Per LEA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000842162), Lear Corporation generated $23.26B in revenue (-0.2% YoY), $436.8M in net income, and $527.2M in free cash flow against $14.84B in total assets and $3.47B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LEA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LEA last traded at $122.29 (+3.25% on volume of 737,360 shares), positioning the stock +0.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($121.76) and -4.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($128.40). Across its 52-week range of $99.00 to $150.33, LEA sits at the 45.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($117.03 to $127.55).

Direct Sub-Reports: LEA RQD Cockpit LEA 12M Forecast LEA Earnings & Move LEA Dividends & DRIP LEA Insiders & 13F LEA Whale Options LEA Profit Sankey LEA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LEA — Lear Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Lear Corporation (LEA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $122.29 (+3.25% 1D, market capitalization $5.84B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.8%, gross margin of 6.5%, operating margin of 3.3%, and free cash flow yield of 9.11%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.04x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.97, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.59x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Lear Corporation (LEA) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Auto Parts: O.E.M. Industry, profile..8B. — for the specific products sold, customer base, or revenue mix. — for detailed description of how the company makes money beyond its sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Lear Corporation (LEA) reported $23.26B in annual revenue (up from $23.31B in FY2024, -0.2% YoY) and $436.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($23.47B revenue, $572.5M net income) through FY2025, LEA scaled operating cash flow to $1.09B and free cash flow to $527.2M, backed by $14.84B in total assets against $3.47B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 9.11% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $99.00 – $150.33 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 13.3x trailing P/E and 6.2x EV/EBITDA against 3.3% operating margins and a 1.04x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no bottleneck links for LEA.

  • Key Question #1: Can LEA sustain or expand its 3.3% operating margin and 8.8% ROIC against Auto Parts:O.E.M. Peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $23.26B and free cash flow of $527.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.47B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LEA's 12.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.04x)?

LEA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lear Corporation (LEA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LEA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LEA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $122.29?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LEA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LEA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $149.23 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 9.11% FCF yield and 13.3x trailing P/E give LEA a cash-generation profile that the Roarable rating's insider-conviction pillar (16/20

Long LEA at $118.44 targeting $149.23. A 9.11% FCF yield and 13.3x trailing P/E give LEA a cash-generation profile that the Roarable rating's insider-conviction pillar (16/20) supports.. Institutional whale score is 8/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $99.00 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $118.44 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $88.83 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $118.44

Thin margins (net 1.9%) and a macro regime fit score of only 6/20 leave LEA exposed to sector sensitivity, with net income down from $5

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short LEA above $118.44. Thin margins (net 1.9%) and a macro regime fit score of only 6/20 leave LEA exposed to sector sensitivity, with net income down from $572.5M to $436.8M over two years.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20) and FCF yield (9.11%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $150.33.

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