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Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$172.56 +0.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $172.27

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $35.78B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ODFL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (NASDAQ: ODFL) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $172.56 (+0.12% 1D, market cap $35.78B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, ODFL ranks #57 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ODFL compare to JBHT and ZTO in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), ODFL carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.5%. By comparison, JBHT (J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 34.6x, ROIC 15.8%, cap $20.61B) and ZTO (ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $15.51B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZTO leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while ODFL leads on capital efficiency (25.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ODFL?
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Per ODFL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000878927), Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. generated $3.81B in revenue (-11.8% YoY), $1.02B in net income, and $1.37B in free cash flow against $5.47B in total assets and $20.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $172.27 (-0.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 36% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C+
Cash (18)Whales (7)SEC (18)Macro (9)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
$265 Bull$180 Base$140 Bear
📬 FREE ODFL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ODFL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ODFL SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 36% FCF Margin ($1.37B FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 22.23 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
75
Grade B+$184.37+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
72
Grade B$188.90-8.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
70
Grade B$173.32-0.4% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$172.56+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (75) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ODFL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, ODFL faces multiple-compression risk if 34.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($181.77) or 200D SMA ($201.69) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($179.55) toward Bear Floor ($140.05).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ODFL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ODFL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
36.830 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
22.23>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE37% OF RANGE
L: $126$172.56H: $252
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: ARQD 18 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on ODFL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (90)

25.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.57% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 22.23 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (52)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ODFL
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ODFL Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ODFL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.21%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $172.4H $172.6L $172.4C $172.6VOL 2.61M
RES: $188.1SUP: $164.8SMA50: $181.8SMA200: $201.7
$258.1$233.0$207.9$182.8$157.8RES $188.1SUP $164.8$172.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ODFL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
26.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -11.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ODFL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ODFL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ODFL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ODFL)

Industrials Rank #57 of 486 ⚔️ JBHT vs ODFL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ODFL vs. JBHT, ZTO, UPS, KNX)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL) ranks #57 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #44 by equity capitalization ($35.78B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZTO leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while ODFL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.5% ROIC and — gross margin. UPS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with ODFL at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ODFL ACTIVE
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.
C+ 67/100 34.9x — 25.5% +0.12% $35.78B Benchmark Subject
JBHT
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.
C+ 66/100 34.6x — 15.8% -0.44% $20.61B /jbht-vs-odfl →
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American
C 65/100 11.8x 25.0% 12.5% +1.36% $15.51B /zto-vs-odfl →
UPS
United Parcel Service Inc.
B 75/100 16.4x — 24.8% +0.86% $92.10B /ups-vs-odfl →
KNX
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.
D 48/100 150.9x — 1.9% -0.62% $9.89B /knx-vs-odfl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000878927 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL) reported GAAP revenue of $3.81B (-11.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.32B , and -17.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.02B, operating cash flow of $1.37B, and free cash flow of $1.37B (-17.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ODFL closed FY2025 with $5.47B in total assets against $20.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 22.23, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.81B $1.02B $1.37B $1.37B $5.47B $20.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.32B $1.19B $1.66B $1.66B $5.49B $561.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.59B $1.24B $1.57B $1.57B $19.66B $4.60B

3. ODFL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ODFL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (NASDAQ: ODFL) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $172.56 (+0.12% 1D, market cap $35.78B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, ODFL ranks #57 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ODFL compare to JBHT and ZTO in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), ODFL carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.5%. By comparison, JBHT (J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 34.6x, ROIC 15.8%, cap $20.61B) and ZTO (ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $15.51B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZTO leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while ODFL leads on capital efficiency (25.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ODFL?

Per ODFL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000878927), Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. generated $3.81B in revenue (-11.8% YoY), $1.02B in net income, and $1.37B in free cash flow against $5.47B in total assets and $20.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ODFL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ODFL last traded at $172.56 (+0.12% on volume of 2,607,213 shares), positioning the stock -5.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($181.77) and -14.44% below its 200-day simple moving average ($201.69). Across its 52-week range of $126.01 to $252.03, ODFL sits at the 36.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($161.86 to $183.26).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ODFL — Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $172.56 (+0.12% 1D, market capitalization $35.78B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 25.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.6%, and free cash flow yield of 2.57%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 0.89x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 22.23, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Industrials sector and the Trucking Freight/Courier Services industry. The profile identifies the company as an operator in trucking freight services. Specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue mechanics are — Revenue figures in the reported financials are shown as — for each period and cannot be used to describe the revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL) reported $3.81B in annual revenue (up from $4.32B in FY2024, -11.8% YoY) and $1.02B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.59B revenue, $1.24B net income) through FY2025, ODFL scaled operating cash flow to $1.37B and free cash flow to $1.37B, backed by $5.47B in total assets against $20.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $126.01 – $252.03 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 34.9x trailing P/E and 20.4x EV/EBITDA against 13.6% operating margins and a 0.89x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain field is NONE, the butterfly links list is empty, and no proprietary signals are recorded. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the stated Industrials and Trucking Freight/Courier Services classification, and second-order bottlenecks are — A prospective investor should therefore treat any ripple analysis as outside the scope of this dossier.

  • Key Question #1: Can ODFL sustain or expand its 13.6% operating margin and 25.5% ROIC against Trucking Freight/Courier Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.81B and free cash flow of $1.37B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $20.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ODFL's 32.5x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.89x)?

ODFL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ODFL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ODFL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $172.56?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ODFL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ODFL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $212.25 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong cash engine and forensic balance sheet, with ROIC of 25.5%, Altman Z 22.23, and Piotroski F 8/9, support the RQD score's quality

The street is overcomplicating Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL). Strong cash engine and forensic balance sheet, with ROIC of 25.5%, Altman Z 22.23, and Piotroski F 8/9, support the RQD score's quality case.. With an RQD score of 67/100 (C+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $186.36.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ODFL's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $132.87 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $172.56

Valuation is demanding at a P/E TTM of 34.9 and FCF yield of 2.57%, while institutional flow scores only 7/20 and reported operating an

Careful chasing ODFL at $172.56. Valuation is demanding at a P/E TTM of 34.9 and FCF yield of 2.57%, while institutional flow scores only 7/20 and reported operating and net income declined FY 2023 to FY 2025.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 13.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $132.87 on multiple compression.

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