COMP <GO>
ZTO vs ODFL // EV/EBITDA & P/E VALUATION
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (NYSE) VS. Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (NASDAQ) • 15-METRIC TALLY: ZTO 8
— ODFL 4
▲ EV/EBITDA & P/E VALUATION LEADER: ZTO
LAST: $20.15 (+1.36%) • MKT CAP: $15.31B
valuation
7.2x
LAST: $172.56 (+0.12%) • MKT CAP: $35.74B
valuation
20.4x
15-METRIC INSTITUTIONAL SIDE-BY-SIDE SCORECARD (ZTO VS. ODFL)
EMERALD CELL = QUANTITATIVE EDGE
| INSTITUTIONAL METRIC | ZTO | ODFL | SPREAD (A - B) | ADVANTAGE | DEDICATED URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | 25.00% | — | — | TIE | /gross-margins <GO> |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 12.50% | 25.50% | -13.00 | ODFL | /roic <GO> |
| EV/EBITDA & P/E Valuation ACTIVE | 7.2x | 20.4x | -13.20 | ZTO | /valuation <GO> |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 6.31% | 2.57% | +3.74 | ZTO | /fcf-yield <GO> |
| Operating Margin | 21.30% | 13.60% | +7.70 | ZTO | /operating-margins <GO> |
| Net Profit Margin | 18.50% | 10.20% | +8.30 | ZTO | /net-margins <GO> |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 6.60% | 11.00% | -4.40 | ODFL | /revenue-growth <GO> |
| Dividend Yield & FCF Payout Safety | 3.51% | 0.66% | +2.85 | ZTO | /dividend-safety <GO> |
| Altman Z-Score & Debt/Equity | 4.41 | 22.23 | -17.82 | ODFL | /balance-sheet <GO> |
| Piotroski F-Score Quality | 8/9 | 8/9 | 0.00 | TIE | /piotroski-score <GO> |
| Options Implied Move & Put/Call Skew | — | — | — | TIE | /options-implied-move <GO> |
| RSI-14 & 200D SMA Momentum | 46.0 | 36.4 | +9.60 | ZTO | /rsi-technicals <GO> |
| 10Y Yield & FRED Macro Beta | 1.11 | 0.89 | +0.22 | ZTO | /macro-sensitivity <GO> |
| Forward P/E Multiple | 11.0x | 32.5x | -21.50 | ZTO | /forward-pe <GO> |
| Enterprise Scale & Market Cap | $15.31B | $35.74B | -$20.43B | ODFL | /market-cap <GO> |
5-YEAR HISTORICAL XBRL REVENUE & MARGIN TRAJECTORY SEC FORM 10-K FY
| FISCAL YEAR | ZTO REV | ODFL REV | ZTO GROSS % | ODFL GROSS % | ZTO FCF | ODFL FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $7.02B | $0 | 25.0% | — | $965.8M | $1.37B |
| FY 2024 | $6.07B | $0 | 31.0% | — | $852.3M | $1.66B |
| FY 2023 | $0 | $0 | — | — | $1.88B | $1.57B |
FRED MACRO REGIME CORRELATION COMPARISON PEARSON r
ZTO // BETA 1.11
ODFL // BETA 0.89