ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

XLY // Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT →
ETF / Index • GICS Consumer Discretionary • SIC 6726
$115.38 ▲ +0.87 (+0.75%)
MKT CAP: $22.00B • VOL: 10.08M
XLY // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim (ETF Composite Methodology)
01 200D/50D REGIME TAPE
ETF Trend & Breadth
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 CONSOLIDATED ETF TAPE
ETF Liquidity & Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
AUM ~$22B • DAILY VOL $1163M • 1D +0.75%
03 14D RSI & 50D SLOPE
Momentum & RSI Regime
16 / 20
STRONG
RSI-14 57.6 • VS 50D +2% • 1D +0.75%
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 52W DRAWDOWN & BETA
Drawdown Containment
16 / 20
STRONG
52W DRAWDOWN -7.7% • HIGH $125.01 • UNLEVERAGED
ALERT

Why did XLY's Macro Regime Fit & ETF Trend & Breadth sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever XLY is Upgraded or Downgraded.

XLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.99%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $114.5H $115.4L $114.5C $115.4VOL 10.08M
RES: $116.6SUP: $107.8SMA50: $113.1SMA200: $115.5
$123.2$119.1$114.9$110.8$106.7RES $116.6SUP $107.8$115.42026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
XLY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 14.0% return on invested capital within ETF / Index (GICS Consumer Discretionary), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 14.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $115.38 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in GICS Consumer Discretionary require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % —
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.30%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 57.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // XLYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $105.58
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>