ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

XEL // Xcel Energy Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000072903 ↗
Utilities • Power Generation
$79.82 ▲ +0.78 (+0.99%)
MKT CAP: $49.37B • VOL: 7.49M
XEL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 66/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
66 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 67% • VS 200D +1% • RSI 63.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7% • P/E 22.8x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.26 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.01
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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XEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.66%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $77.18H $79.82L $77.18C $79.82VOL 6.58M
RES: $80.52SUP: $65.48SMA50: $74.77SMA200: $78.29
$83.87$79.76$75.66$71.55$67.45RES $80.52SUP $65.48$79.822026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
XEL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 5.1% return on invested capital within Utilities (Power Generation), balanced against a 21.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 18.7% operating margin and 5.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.4% paired with 7.01% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.4% // FCF YLD: 7.01%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.16 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.16 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.5x trailing P/E (22.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.5x // EV/EBITDA: 21.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $79.82 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Power Generation require continuous execution to defend 14.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 14.6% // D/E: 0.69x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.55).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 24.5x
FORWARD P/E 22.8x
EV / EBITDA 21.0x
FCF YIELD 7.01%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 18.7%
NET MARGIN 14.6%
ROIC % 5.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.23
DEBT / EQUITY 0.69x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.60%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 63.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.55
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // XELPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $73.04
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>