ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

UNP // Union Pacific Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000100885 ↗
Industrials • Railroads
$304.00 ▲ +2.07 (+0.69%)
MKT CAP: $179.42B • VOL: 2.77M
UNP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 74/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
74 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF -6.7% vs NI +5.8% • ROIC-WACC +12.7% • Z 4.31
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 86% • VS 200D +11.4% • RSI 66.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +3.1% • P/E 23.3x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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UNP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.41%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $297.8H $304.0L $297.8C $304.0VOL 1.99M
RES: $306.1SUP: $254.0SMA50: $287.2SMA200: $271.1
$321.6$298.2$274.8$251.3$227.9RES $306.1SUP $254.0$304.02026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
UNP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 53/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 20.1% return on invested capital within Industrials (Railroads), balanced against a 15.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 40.2% operating margin and 20.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 20.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +1.1% paired with 3.06% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +1.1% // FCF YLD: 3.06%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.31 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.31 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 25.1x trailing P/E (23.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 25.1x // EV/EBITDA: 15.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $304.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Railroads require continuous execution to defend 29.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 29.1% // D/E: 1.17x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.03).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 25.1x
FORWARD P/E 23.3x
EV / EBITDA 15.3x
FCF YIELD 3.06%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 40.2%
NET MARGIN 29.1%
ROIC % 20.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +1.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $12.01
DEBT / EQUITY 1.17x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.80%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 66.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.03
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // UNPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $278.17
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>