ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

UAL // United Airlines Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000100517 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Air Freight/Delivery Services
$104.24 ▼ -0.97 (-0.92%)
MKT CAP: $34.18B • VOL: 4.95M
UAL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -16.1% vs NI +6.5% • ROIC-WACC +6.9% • Z 1.57
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 38% • VS 200D -2.5% • RSI 50.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +16.9% • P/E 9.5x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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UAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.73%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $103.4H $105.2L $103.4C $104.2VOL 4.54M
RES: $126.8SUP: $91.71SMA50: $107.3SMA200: $108.0
$142.3$127.7$113.1$98.43$83.80RES $126.8SUP $91.71$104.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
UAL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 50/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 14.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Air Freight/Delivery Services), balanced against a 6.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 8.0% operating margin and 14.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +3.5% paired with 16.89% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +3.5% // FCF YLD: 16.89%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.57 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.57 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 10.2x trailing P/E (9.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 10.2x // EV/EBITDA: 6.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $104.24 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Air Freight/Delivery Services require continuous execution to defend 5.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.7% // D/E: 1.12x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.90).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 10.2x
FORWARD P/E 9.5x
EV / EBITDA 6.5x
FCF YIELD 16.89%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 8.0%
NET MARGIN 5.7%
ROIC % 14.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +3.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $10.32
DEBT / EQUITY 1.12x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.90
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // UALPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $95.38
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>