ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TDG // Transdigm Group Incorporated

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001260221 ↗
Industrials • Military/Government/Technical
$1,146.81 ▼ -29.10 (-2.47%)
MKT CAP: $65.00B • VOL: 395.4K
TDG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 63/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
63 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF -3.4% vs NI +21% • ROIC-WACC +55.9% • Z 1.76
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 27% • VS 200D -3.9% • RSI 60.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +2.8% • P/E 29.1x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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TDG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.25%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $1,136.5H $1,175.9L $1,136.5C $1,146.8VOL 331.1K
RES: $1,353.3SUP: $965.9SMA50: $1,128.3SMA200: $1,223.6
$1,382.1$1,297.9$1,213.6$1,129.4$1,045.1RES $1,353.3SUP $965.9$1,146.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
TDG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) exhibits 60.1% gross margins and 63.3% return on invested capital within Industrials (Military/Government/Technical), balanced against a 17.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 60.1% gross profitability converts into 47.2% operating margin and 63.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 63.3% // GM: 60.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +11.2% paired with 2.79% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +11.2% // FCF YLD: 2.79%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.76 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.76 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 31.3x trailing P/E (29.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 31.3x // EV/EBITDA: 17.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $1,146.81 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Military/Government/Technical require continuous execution to defend 23.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 23.5% // D/E: 0.85x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 29.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.89).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 31.3x
FORWARD P/E 29.1x
EV / EBITDA 17.5x
FCF YIELD 2.79%
GROSS MARGIN 60.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 47.2%
NET MARGIN 23.5%
ROIC % 63.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +11.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $37.52
DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x
DIVIDEND YIELD 11.50%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.89
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TDGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $1,049.37
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>