ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

STZ // Constellation Brands Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000016918 ↗
Consumer Staples • Beverages (Production/Distribution)
$135.33 ▲ +4.98 (+3.82%)
MKT CAP: $22.06B • VOL: 3.43M
STZ // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 66/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
66 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -7.4% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +4.7% • Z 2.72
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +8.1% • P/E 12.2x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.15 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.03
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did STZ's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever STZ is Upgraded or Downgraded.

STZ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.65%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $129.8H $135.3L $129.8C $135.3VOL 1.60M
RES: $140.0SUP: $104.5SMA50: $125.2SMA200: $141.6
$157.6$144.9$132.1$119.4$106.6RES $140.0SUP $104.5$135.32026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
STZ // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) exhibits 51.6% gross margins and 12.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), balanced against a 9.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 51.6% gross profitability converts into 29.8% operating margin and 12.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.0% // GM: 51.6%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -10.5% paired with 8.13% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -10.5% // FCF YLD: 8.13%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.72 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.72 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 13.1x trailing P/E (12.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 13.1x // EV/EBITDA: 9.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $135.33 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Beverages (Production/Distribution) require continuous execution to defend 18.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 18.5% // D/E: 1.33x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 12.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.09).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 13.1x
FORWARD P/E 12.2x
EV / EBITDA 9.3x
FCF YIELD 8.13%
GROSS MARGIN 51.6%
OPERATING MARGIN 29.8%
NET MARGIN 18.5%
ROIC % 12.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -10.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $9.97
DEBT / EQUITY 1.33x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.25%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.09
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // STZPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $123.83
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>