ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

STLD // Steel Dynamics Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001022671 ↗
Materials • Steel/Iron Ore
$250.80 ▼ -2.73 (-1.08%)
MKT CAP: $36.06B • VOL: 807.2K
STLD // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 68/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI -22.9% • ROIC-WACC +1.5% • Z 5.95
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 75% • VS 200D +12.9% • RSI 61.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.04 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.41
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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STLD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.13%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $250.0H $253.5L $250.0C $250.8VOL 842.0K
RES: $254.3SUP: $220.0SMA50: $238.9SMA200: $224.7
$297.5$261.3$225.2$189.0$152.8RES $254.3SUP $220.0$250.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
STLD // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) exhibits 13.2% gross margins and 9.4% return on invested capital within Materials (Steel/Iron Ore), balanced against a 17.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 13.2% gross profitability converts into 8.1% operating margin and 9.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.4% // GM: 13.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +3.6% paired with 1.39% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +3.6% // FCF YLD: 1.39%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.95 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.95 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 30.4x trailing P/E (28.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 30.4x // EV/EBITDA: 17.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $250.80 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Steel/Iron Ore require continuous execution to defend 6.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.5% // D/E: 0.47x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 28.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.87).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 30.4x
FORWARD P/E 28.3x
EV / EBITDA 17.3x
FCF YIELD 1.39%
GROSS MARGIN 13.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 8.1%
NET MARGIN 6.5%
ROIC % 9.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +3.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $8.34
DEBT / EQUITY 0.47x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.81%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 61.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.87
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // STLDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $229.49
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>