ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SPG // Simon Property Group Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001063761 ↗
Financials • Real Estate Investment Trusts
$217.75 ▲ +2.03 (+0.94%)
MKT CAP: $69.80B • VOL: 1.69M
SPG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 74/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
74 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +8.6% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +4.5% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 65% • VS 200D +4.6% • RSI 63.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +5.5% • P/E 26.2x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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SPG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.06%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $211.2H $217.8L $211.2C $217.8VOL 1.09M
RES: $218.2SUP: $192.2SMA50: $207.1SMA200: $206.2
$242.3$226.7$211.1$195.5$179.9RES $218.2SUP $192.2$217.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
SPG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 13.5% return on invested capital within Financials (Real Estate Investment Trusts), balanced against a 24.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 49.9% operating margin and 13.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 13.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +6.7% paired with 5.52% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +6.7% // FCF YLD: 5.52%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 28.2x trailing P/E (26.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 28.2x // EV/EBITDA: 24.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $217.75 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Real Estate Investment Trusts require continuous execution to defend 38.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 38.9% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 26.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.04).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 28.2x
FORWARD P/E 26.2x
EV / EBITDA 24.3x
FCF YIELD 5.52%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 49.9%
NET MARGIN 38.9%
ROIC % 13.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +6.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $7.66
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 63.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.04
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SPGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $199.25
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>