ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

PFSI // PennyMac Financial Services Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001745916 ↗
Financials • Finance: Consumer Services
$62.92 ▼ -1.49 (-2.31%)
MKT CAP: $3.35B • VOL: 1.29M
PFSI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // D+ (RQD 58) -> D- (RQD 41)
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
41 / 100 -17D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF +63.3% vs NI +61.1% • ROIC-WACC +2.6% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +0% • P/E 6.2x • F-SCORE 2/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
7 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.35 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.14
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did PFSI's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever PFSI is Upgraded or Downgraded.

PFSI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.00%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $63.42H $64.41L $62.92C $62.92VOL 451.0K
RES: $64.35SUP: $54.05SMA50: $65.75SMA200: $84.03
$116.5$100.5$84.52$68.54$52.56RES $64.35SUP $54.05$62.922026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PFSI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 34/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

PennyMac Financial Services Inc. (PFSI) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 11.6% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance: Consumer Services), balanced against a 6.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 11.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 11.6% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -25.2% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -25.2% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 2/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 6.7x trailing P/E (6.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 6.7x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $62.92 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance: Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend 68.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 68.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 6.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 6.7x
FORWARD P/E 6.2x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN 68.0%
ROIC % 11.6%
REV GROWTH YOY -25.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $9.64
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.87%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PFSIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $57.57
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for PFSI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>