ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

PAG // Penske Automotive Group Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001019849 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations
$212.12 ▼ -0.22 (-0.10%)
MKT CAP: $13.94B • VOL: 405.1K
PAG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
58 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -120% vs NI -3.5% • ROIC-WACC +4.8% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 83% • VS 200D +15.9% • RSI 59
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
14 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 6 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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PAG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.63%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $212.0H $212.3L $212.0C $212.1VOL 351.4K
RES: $212.0SUP: $198.0SMA50: $210.3SMA200: $183.2
$232.1$211.0$189.8$168.7$147.6RES $212.0SUP $198.0$212.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PAG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) exhibits 16.4% gross margins and 13.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), balanced against a 6.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 16.4% gross profitability converts into 4.0% operating margin and 13.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 13.8% // GM: 16.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -0.2% paired with -3.27% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -0.2% // FCF YLD: -3.27%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.20 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.20 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 14.9x trailing P/E (13.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 14.9x // EV/EBITDA: 6.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $212.12 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations require continuous execution to defend 2.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.9% // D/E: 0.33x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 13.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.06).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 14.9x
FORWARD P/E 13.9x
EV / EBITDA 6.3x
FCF YIELD -3.27%
GROSS MARGIN 16.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.0%
NET MARGIN 2.9%
ROIC % 13.8%
REV GROWTH YOY -0.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $14.25
DEBT / EQUITY 0.33x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.47%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 59.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.06
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PAGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $194.10
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>