ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ONTO // Onto Innovation Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000704532 ↗
Industrials • Industrial Machinery/Components
$201.57 ▼ -20.32 (-9.16%)
MKT CAP: $10.89B • VOL: 1.09M
ONTO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
59 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +40.2% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC -4.6% • Z 26
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
9 / 20
WARNING
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.02 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.39
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did ONTO's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ONTO is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ONTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -32.71%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $223.7H $223.7L $201.6C $201.6VOL 824.5K
RES: $329.2SUP: $185.3SMA50: $261.9SMA200: $261.1
$401.8$338.2$274.5$210.9$147.2RES $329.2SUP $185.3$201.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
ONTO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 43/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) exhibits 49.7% gross margins and 5.6% return on invested capital within Industrials (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 67.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 49.7% gross profitability converts into 13.2% operating margin and 5.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.6% // GM: 49.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +1.8% paired with 2.75% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +1.8% // FCF YLD: 2.75%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 26.00 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 26.00 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 67.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $201.57 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend 0.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.0% // D/E: 0.05x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 67.8x
FCF YIELD 2.75%
GROSS MARGIN 49.7%
OPERATING MARGIN 13.2%
NET MARGIN 0.0%
ROIC % 5.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +1.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.05x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 42.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.10
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ONTOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $184.44
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ONTO & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>