ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NRG // NRG Energy Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001013871 ↗
Utilities • Electric Utilities: Central
$96.06 ▼ -1.48 (-1.52%)
MKT CAP: $20.50B • VOL: 2.19M
NRG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
48 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -58.2% vs NI -23.2% • ROIC-WACC +4.7% • Z 2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 7% • VS 200D -27.6% • RSI 45.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +3.7% • P/E 22x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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NRG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -37.95%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $96.97H $97.54L $96.06C $96.06VOL 2.90M
RES: $101.3SUP: $81.88SMA50: $104.0SMA200: $134.7
$164.7$144.7$124.7$104.6$84.58RES $101.3SUP $81.88$96.062026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
NRG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 10.9% return on invested capital within Utilities (Electric Utilities: Central), balanced against a 11.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 6.1% operating margin and 10.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 10.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +9.4% paired with 3.74% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +9.4% // FCF YLD: 3.74%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.00 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.00 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 23.7x trailing P/E (22.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 23.7x // EV/EBITDA: 11.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $96.06 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Electric Utilities: Central require continuous execution to defend 2.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.8% // D/E: 8.50x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.67).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 23.7x
FORWARD P/E 22.0x
EV / EBITDA 11.4x
FCF YIELD 3.74%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 6.1%
NET MARGIN 2.8%
ROIC % 10.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +9.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.11
DEBT / EQUITY 8.50x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 45.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.67
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NRGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $87.90
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>