ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NIO // NIO Inc. American

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001736541 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Auto Manufacturing
$3.21 ▼ -0.11 (-3.31%)
MKT CAP: $8.32B • VOL: 34.91M
NIO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 17/100 [E] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
17 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
5 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF +90.9% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC -41.8% • Z 0.45
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
5 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 4% • VS 200D -32.1% • RSI 42.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
3 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.05 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.19
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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NIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -47.12%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $3.32H $3.32L $3.21C $3.21VOL 25.07M
RES: $3.56SUP: $2.84SMA50: $3.61SMA200: $4.89
$6.82$5.83$4.84$3.84$2.85RES $3.56SUP $2.84$3.212026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
NIO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 34/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

NIO Inc. American (NIO) exhibits 13.6% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Auto Manufacturing), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 13.6% gross profitability converts into -16.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: 13.6%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +38.9% paired with -1.62% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +38.9% // FCF YLD: -1.62%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.45 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.45 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (32.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $3.21 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Auto Manufacturing require continuous execution to defend -12.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -12.5% // D/E: 2.07x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 32.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.08).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 32.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -1.62%
GROSS MARGIN 13.6%
OPERATING MARGIN -16.0%
NET MARGIN -12.5%
ROIC % -35.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +38.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.63
DEBT / EQUITY 2.07x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 42.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.08
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NIOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $2.94
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>