ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NHC // National HealthCare Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001047335 ↗
Health Care • Hospital/Nursing Management
$206.14 ▼ -6.02 (-2.84%)
MKT CAP: $3.32B • VOL: 136.0K
NHC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // C+ (RQD 69) -> B (RQD 73)
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
73 / 100 +4D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +86.5% vs NI +17.7% • ROIC-WACC +0% • Z 6.61
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.12 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.10
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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NHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.83%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-02O $211.8H $212.2L $206.1C $206.1VOL 145.7K
RES: $249.9SUP: $225.9SMA50: $225.5SMA200: $194.5
$256.1$223.5$190.9$158.3$125.8RES $249.9SUP $225.9$206.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
NHC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 54/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 10.1% return on invested capital within Health Care (Hospital/Nursing Management), balanced against a 20.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 8.5% operating margin and 10.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 10.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +16.1% paired with 4.47% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +16.1% // FCF YLD: 4.47%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 6.61 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 6.61 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 27.7x trailing P/E (23.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 27.7x // EV/EBITDA: 20.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $206.14 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Hospital/Nursing Management require continuous execution to defend 7.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.9% // D/E: 0.03x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 27.7x
FORWARD P/E 23.3x
EV / EBITDA 20.5x
FCF YIELD 4.47%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 8.5%
NET MARGIN 7.9%
ROIC % 10.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +16.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $7.66
DEBT / EQUITY 0.03x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.16%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 40.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NHCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $188.62
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for NHC & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>