ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NBIX // Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000914475 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)
$146.10 ▼ -0.28 (-0.19%)
MKT CAP: $14.88B • VOL: 1.32M
NBIX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 73/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
73 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +34.4% vs NI +40.2% • ROIC-WACC +5.9% • Z 8.13
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.06 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.25
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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NBIX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.97%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $145.5H $146.4L $145.5C $146.1VOL 831.6K
RES: $148.7SUP: $126.3SMA50: $146.4SMA200: $147.5
$190.0$173.9$157.7$141.5$125.3RES $148.7SUP $126.3$146.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
NBIX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 60/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) exhibits 96.0% gross margins and 15.7% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), balanced against a 22.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 96.0% gross profitability converts into 21.6% operating margin and 15.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 15.7% // GM: 96.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +21.4% paired with 5.03% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +21.4% // FCF YLD: 5.03%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 8.13 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 8.13 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 31.1x trailing P/E (26.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 31.1x // EV/EBITDA: 22.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $146.10 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) require continuous execution to defend 16.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 16.7% // D/E: 0.18x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 26.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.13).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 31.1x
FORWARD P/E 26.1x
EV / EBITDA 22.8x
FCF YIELD 5.03%
GROSS MARGIN 96.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 21.6%
NET MARGIN 16.7%
ROIC % 15.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +21.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.71
DEBT / EQUITY 0.18x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.13
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NBIXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $133.69
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>