ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MPC // Marathon Petroleum Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001510295 ↗
Energy • Integrated oil Companies
$444.73 ▲ +12.22 (+2.83%)
MKT CAP: $121.46B • VOL: 2.08M
MPC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 70/100 [B-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
70 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF -22.3% vs NI +17.5% • ROIC-WACC +9.5% • Z 3.86
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 81% • VS 200D +47.6% • RSI 46.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +3.9% • P/E 27.9x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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MPC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +76.10%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $440.8H $444.7L $432.5C $444.7VOL 2.40M
RES: $519.6SUP: $425.9SMA50: $420.7SMA200: $293.0
$515.0$427.9$340.8$253.7$166.6RES $519.6SUP $425.9$444.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
MPC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) exhibits 10.0% gross margins and 16.9% return on invested capital within Energy (Integrated oil Companies), balanced against a 12.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 10.0% gross profitability converts into 6.2% operating margin and 16.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 16.9% // GM: 10.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -4.4% paired with 3.92% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -4.4% // FCF YLD: 3.92%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.86 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.86 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 30.0x trailing P/E (27.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 30.0x // EV/EBITDA: 12.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $444.73 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Integrated oil Companies require continuous execution to defend 3.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.0% // D/E: 1.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 27.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.16).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 30.0x
FORWARD P/E 27.9x
EV / EBITDA 12.7x
FCF YIELD 3.92%
GROSS MARGIN 10.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 6.2%
NET MARGIN 3.0%
ROIC % 16.9%
REV GROWTH YOY -4.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $14.41
DEBT / EQUITY 1.45x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.94%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 46.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.16
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MPCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $406.94
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>