ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MELI // MercadoLibre Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001099590 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Business Services
$1,624.53 ▼ -35.60 (-2.14%)
MKT CAP: $84.16B • VOL: 522.9K
MELI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 54/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
54 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +54.8% vs NI +4.5% • ROIC-WACC +7.5% • Z 2.46
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 19% • VS 200D -8.2% • RSI 35.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +13.3% • P/E 35.4x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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MELI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.42%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $1,673.1H $1,673.1L $1,624.5C $1,624.5VOL 450.2K
RES: $2,253.3SUP: $1,549.8SMA50: $1,829.6SMA200: $1,809.1
$2,131.7$1,959.1$1,786.6$1,614.0$1,441.4RES $2,253.3SUP $1,549.8$1,624.52026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
MELI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 63/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) exhibits 63.2% gross margins and 13.9% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 63.2% gross profitability converts into 15.7% operating margin and 13.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 13.9% // GM: 63.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +34.3% paired with 13.31% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +34.3% // FCF YLD: 13.31%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.46 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.46 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 42.1x trailing P/E (35.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 42.1x // EV/EBITDA: 24.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $1,624.53 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 9.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 9.8% // D/E: 2.24x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 35.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.93).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 42.1x
FORWARD P/E 35.4x
EV / EBITDA 24.0x
FCF YIELD 13.31%
GROSS MARGIN 63.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 15.7%
NET MARGIN 9.8%
ROIC % 13.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +34.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $39.39
DEBT / EQUITY 2.24x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 35.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.93
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MELIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $1,486.50
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>