ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

KMX // CarMax Inc

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001170010 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations
$55.58 ▼ -0.59 (-1.05%)
MKT CAP: $7.97B • VOL: 2.61M
KMX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 57/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
57 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +200% vs NI -50.7% • ROIC-WACC -5.8% • Z 1.62
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 74% • VS 200D +13.6% • RSI 55.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.06 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.24
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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KMX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +50.70%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $53.99H $56.17L $53.99C $55.58VOL 2.99M
RES: $72.20SUP: $47.00SMA50: $56.83SMA200: $49.46
$67.39$58.66$49.92$41.19$32.46RES $72.20SUP $47.00$55.582026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
KMX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 39/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

CarMax Inc (KMX) exhibits 10.8% gross margins and 1.7% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), balanced against a 21.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 10.8% gross profitability converts into 1.2% operating margin and 1.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 1.7% // GM: 10.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -1.8% paired with 15.59% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -1.8% // FCF YLD: 15.59%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.62 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.62 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 32.3x trailing P/E (30.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 32.3x // EV/EBITDA: 21.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $55.58 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations require continuous execution to defend 1.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.0% // D/E: 1.35x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 30.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.16).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 32.3x
FORWARD P/E 30.0x
EV / EBITDA 21.0x
FCF YIELD 15.59%
GROSS MARGIN 10.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 1.2%
NET MARGIN 1.0%
ROIC % 1.7%
REV GROWTH YOY -1.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.74
DEBT / EQUITY 1.35x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.16
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // KMXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $50.86
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>