ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

KDP // Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001418135 ↗
Consumer Staples • Beverages (Production/Distribution)
$35.84 ▲ +0.54 (+1.53%)
MKT CAP: $48.04B • VOL: 32.59M
KDP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 64/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
64 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
19 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 93% • VS 200D +17.4% • RSI 64.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +3.1% • P/E 21.5x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.13 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.01
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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KDP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +24.14%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $34.93H $35.84L $34.93C $35.84VOL 15.21M
RES: $36.27SUP: $31.02SMA50: $32.56SMA200: $30.08
$36.74$34.20$31.66$29.11$26.57RES $36.27SUP $31.02$35.842026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
KDP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) exhibits 54.2% gross margins and 7.5% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), balanced against a 15.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 54.2% gross profitability converts into 21.5% operating margin and 7.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 7.5% // GM: 54.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.2% paired with 3.13% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.2% // FCF YLD: 3.13%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.55 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.55 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 23.1x trailing P/E (21.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 23.1x // EV/EBITDA: 15.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $35.84 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Beverages (Production/Distribution) require continuous execution to defend 12.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.5% // D/E: 0.51x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 21.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.15).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 23.1x
FORWARD P/E 21.5x
EV / EBITDA 15.1x
FCF YIELD 3.13%
GROSS MARGIN 54.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 21.5%
NET MARGIN 12.5%
ROIC % 7.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.53
DEBT / EQUITY 0.51x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.60%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 64.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.15
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // KDPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $32.79
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>