ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

HWM // Howmet Aerospace Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000004281 ↗
Industrials • Metal Fabrications
$199.22 ▼ -6.72 (-3.26%)
MKT CAP: $82.13B • VOL: 3.74M
HWM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 65/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
65 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +46.5% vs NI +30.6% • ROIC-WACC +13% • Z 10.53
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
9 / 20
WARNING
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.03 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.37
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did HWM's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever HWM is Upgraded or Downgraded.

HWM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.89%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $195.2H $205.9L $195.2C $199.2VOL 5.83M
RES: $339.3SUP: $177.2SMA50: $226.6SMA200: $248.5
$318.9$282.2$245.5$208.8$172.1RES $339.3SUP $177.2$199.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
HWM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 21.6% return on invested capital within Industrials (Metal Fabrications), balanced against a 34.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 24.8% operating margin and 21.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 21.6% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +11.1% paired with 1.74% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +11.1% // FCF YLD: 1.74%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 10.53 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 10.53 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 54.5x trailing P/E (50.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 54.5x // EV/EBITDA: 34.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $199.22 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Fabrications require continuous execution to defend 18.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 18.3% // D/E: 0.53x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 50.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 54.5x
FORWARD P/E 50.7x
EV / EBITDA 34.7x
FCF YIELD 1.74%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 24.8%
NET MARGIN 18.3%
ROIC % 21.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +11.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.78
DEBT / EQUITY 0.53x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.10
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // HWMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $182.29
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for HWM & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>