ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ETSY // Etsy Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001370637 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Business Services
$88.96 ▼ -2.63 (-2.87%)
MKT CAP: $7.90B • VOL: 3.43M
ETSY // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 74/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
74 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF -8.2% vs NI -46.2% • ROIC-WACC +25.3% • Z 1.6
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
19 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 94% • VS 200D +33.6% • RSI 64
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.18 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.20
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did ETSY's Forensic 10-K Risk & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ETSY is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ETSY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +38.91%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $92.35H $92.35L $88.96C $88.96VOL 4.22M
RES: $94.89SUP: $59.62SMA50: $79.04SMA200: $68.53
$97.19$86.02$74.84$63.67$52.50RES $94.89SUP $59.62$88.962026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
ETSY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 59/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Etsy Inc. (ETSY) exhibits 71.6% gross margins and 33.3% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 29.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 71.6% gross profitability converts into 9.2% operating margin and 33.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 33.3% // GM: 71.6%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +2.7% paired with 8.59% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +2.7% // FCF YLD: 8.59%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.60 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.60 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 48.4x trailing P/E (45.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 48.4x // EV/EBITDA: 29.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $88.96 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 5.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.7% // D/E: 0.85x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 45.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 48.4x
FORWARD P/E 45.0x
EV / EBITDA 29.3x
FCF YIELD 8.59%
GROSS MARGIN 71.6%
OPERATING MARGIN 9.2%
NET MARGIN 5.7%
ROIC % 33.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +2.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.89
DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 64.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ETSYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $81.40
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ETSY & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>