ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

DOW // Dow Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001751788 ↗
Materials • Major Chemicals
$34.70 ▲ +1.08 (+3.21%)
MKT CAP: $24.34B • VOL: 11.05M
DOW // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 44/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
44 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
5 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -120% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC -4.8% • Z 1.83
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 58% • VS 200D +2.9% • RSI 65.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.11 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.26
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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DOW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.49%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $34.13H $34.70L $33.62C $34.70VOL 7.36M
RES: $34.91SUP: $25.80SMA50: $29.97SMA200: $32.68
$42.51$38.20$33.89$29.57$25.26RES $34.91SUP $25.80$34.702026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
DOW // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 37/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Dow Inc. (DOW) exhibits 6.3% gross margins and 2.8% return on invested capital within Materials (Major Chemicals), balanced against a 13.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 6.3% gross profitability converts into 2.2% operating margin and 2.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.8% // GM: 6.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -7.0% paired with -3.15% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -7.0% // FCF YLD: -3.15%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.83 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.83 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 36.2x trailing P/E (33.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 36.2x // EV/EBITDA: 13.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $34.70 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Chemicals require continuous execution to defend 1.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.7% // D/E: 0.74x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 33.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.92).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 36.2x
FORWARD P/E 33.7x
EV / EBITDA 13.5x
FCF YIELD -3.15%
GROSS MARGIN 6.3%
OPERATING MARGIN 2.2%
NET MARGIN 1.7%
ROIC % 2.8%
REV GROWTH YOY -7.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.93
DEBT / EQUITY 0.74x
DIVIDEND YIELD 6.12%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 65.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.92
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // DOWPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $31.75
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>