AMZN // Amazon.com, Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001018724 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Broadline E-Commerce, Logistics & Hyperscale Cloud (AWS) • SIC 5961

$240.35 ▼ -3.44 (-1.41%)

MKT CAP: $2.63T • VOL: 104.90M

52W L $81 52W H $287

ALTMAN Z

3.32 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

6 / 9

AMZN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 60/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-02

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

60 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

9 / 20

WARNING

FCF -120% vs NI +76.2% • ROIC-WACC +7% • Z 3.32

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

17 / 20

STRONG

NET GEX +6% • CALL SWEEP 91% • P/C 0.47

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 1 CRIT / 1 MED • ESCALATING

ALERT

Why did AMZN's Insider Conviction & Macro Regime Fit sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AMZN is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (2 ACTIVE ON AMZN)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▲ BULLISH // UNANNOUNCED GOVT CONTRACT CATALYSTSIFTER 07 // FEDERAL PRIME AWARD CATALYST

SEVERITY: 96/100 Z-SCORE: +4.60σ

AMZN Detects 4.6 Z-Score Spike on $528.5M Unannounced DoD Government Contracts

TOP FEDERAL AWARD

$167.4M (W519TC25FA004)

TOTAL OBLIGATED / TTM REV

$528.5M (528.53% REV)

AWARDING AGENCY

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // USASPENDING.GOV × TTM XBRL REVENUE]

USASpending.gov Prime Award APISAM.gov / CIK Entity MatcherSEC XBRL Trailing 12M Revenue

Quantitative ingestion across USASpending.gov and SAM.gov flagged an anomalous 4.6 z-score surge driven by $528.5M in total obligated defense procurement awards. The primary catalyst is a $167.4M (W519TC25FA004) contract issued by the Department of Defense starting on 2024-11-22. This concentrated flow represents 528.53% REV relative to trailing segment metrics, signaling significant unpriced public sector top-line momentum.

▲ BULLISH // STEALTH WHALE ACCUMULATIONSIFTER 01 // DARK POOL + GEX DIVERGENCE

SEVERITY: 96/100 Z-SCORE: +3.45σ

Retail Tape Slipped -4.25% While $16.46B FINRA Off-Exchange Buying & 81% Call Sweeps Hit

5D RETAIL PRICE ACTION

-4.25% PULLBACK

FINRA OFF-EXCH BUY FLOW

$16.46B (64.0% NON-SHORT)

OTM CALL SWEEP SHARE

81.4% (168x VOL/OI)

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // FINRA REGSHO × OPRA GEX]

FINRA RegSHO TRF CDNOPRA Options GEX (<45D)Consolidated 5D Price Tape

Multi-feed institutional triangulation brief redacted on server pending verified B-Unit credential. Complete 1-step email verification to unblur full forensic evidence, cross-feed divergences, and Z-score attribution.

[LOCKED FORENSIC BRIEF] ENTER EMAIL IN ROARABLE RATING BAR ABOVE TO UNBLUR ALL AMZN CROSS-FEED NOTES UNBLUR BRIEF <GO>

AMZN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.86%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-11-02O $254.6H $254.6L $240.4C $240.4VOL 85.24M

RES: $261.4SUP: $255.2SMA50: $241.6SMA200: $190.5

AMZN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 58/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

AMZN trades at 16.0x EV/EBITDA and 22.8x Forward P/E against a sharply deteriorating cash profile driven by FY2026 capex surging to $215.19B, which collapsed annual FCF to -$46.89B (-1.78% FCF yield). While operating margins expanded to 13.9% in Q4 2026 and net income reached $134.78B, debt expanded to $179.95B (D/E at 0.29x) alongside ROIC compression from 17.6% down to 12.0% in Q4 2026. With technicals breaking below both the 50D SMA ($254.28) and 200D SMA ($243.40), the risk/reward is balanced, dictating a pair-trade stance against higher cash-conversion megacap tech.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Core Operating Margin Leverage and Topline Resilience

Operating margin expanded monotonically across FY2026 from 9.7% in Q4 2025 to 13.9% in Q4 2026, alongside Gross Margin expanding from 50.8% to 53.2%, demonstrating pricing power in AWS and high-margin retail advertising despite macro headwinds.

OPM: 13.9% | GM: 53.2% | REV YOY: 12.1%

02. Earnings Power and Strong Capital Structure Solvency

Annual GAAP Net Income expanded to $134.78B with TTM Diluted EPS reaching $12.47, sustaining an Altman Z-Score of 3.36 firmly in fortress territory and keeping Debt-to-Equity contained at 0.29x.

NET INC: $134.78B | EPS: $12.47 | ALTMAN Z: 3.36

03. Favorable Positioning and Valuation Multiple Support

With RSI-14 compressed to 38.3 near oversold territory and a Put/Call ratio of 0.47 signaling institutional call demand, forward multiples at 22.8x P/E and 16.0x EV/EBITDA provide strong downside support below the $250.00 Max Pain strike.

FORWARD P/E: 22.8x | EV/EBITDA: 16.0x | PCR: 0.47

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Severe FCF Hemorrhage Under Aggressive Hyperscale Capex

Capital expenditures exploded from $54.73B in FY2023 to $215.19B in FY2026 ($77.26B in Q4 2026 alone), dragging full-year FCF to -$46.89B and posting a negative FCF yield of -1.78%.

CAPEX: $215.19B | FCF: -$46.89B | FCF YIELD: -1.78%

02. ROIC Dilution and Rapid Debt Accumulation

Balance sheet debt surged more than threefold from $54.74B in FY2025 to $179.95B in FY2026, while ROIC eroded from 16.3% in Q2 2026 to 12.0% in Q4 2026, reflecting diminishing marginal returns on infrastructure buildouts.

DEBT: $179.95B | ROIC: 12.0% | PIOTROSKI: 6/9

03. Technical Breakdown Below Critical Moving Averages

Spot price at $240.35 has breached both the 50D SMA ($254.28) and the 200D SMA ($243.40), confirming systematic trend-follower distribution amid high equity beta of 1.46.

PRICE: $240.35 | 50D SMA: $254.28 | 200D SMA: $243.40

KEY CATALYST // Q1 2027 Earnings release and AWS AI monetization update against an options implied move of 6.7%; execution must demonstrate capex moderation below the $77.26B quarterly run-rate to trigger re-rating toward the mean PT of $287.60.

MACRO REGIME // AMZN exhibits high vulnerability to credit and volatility shocks, with VIXCLS showing a strong inverse correlation of r=-0.52 (R²=0.27; +5.0 pt spike maps to -3.83% weekly return) and High Yield Spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2) showing r=-0.48 (R²=0.23; +50 bps widening implies -6.29% return elasticity), while consumer sentiment (UMCSENT) offers modest positive beta (r=+0.27).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin)	BUY	$415.0M
Pershing Square (Bill Ackman)	BUY	$477.9M
Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett)	BUY	$137.3M
Herrington Douglas J	SELL	$251.5K

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$275 (2026-11-20)	CALL	$2.7M
$245 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$6.7M
$240 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$9.2M
$240 (2026-11-02)	CALL	$4.8M

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 19.2x

FORWARD P/E 21.7x

EV / EBITDA 15.8x

FCF YIELD -1.81%

GROSS MARGIN —

OPERATING MARGIN —

NET MARGIN —

ROIC % 17.6%

REV GROWTH YOY —

DILUTED EPS TTM $12.47

DEBT / EQUITY 0.29x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 47.2

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.46

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.52 r

Strong inverse linkage (r = -0.52, R² = 27.4% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -3.83% weekly return elasticity on AMZN.

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) -0.48 r

Strong inverse linkage (r = -0.48, R² = 23.1% over 156W): a +50 bps rise in BAMLH0A0HYM2 historically maps to -6.29% weekly return elasticity on AMZN.

UMCSENT // University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index +0.27 r

Moderate positive linkage (r = +0.27, R² = 7.5% over 257W): a +1 unit move in UMCSENT historically maps to +0.74% weekly return elasticity on AMZN.

FEDFUNDS // Effective Federal Funds Policy Rate -0.19 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.19, R² = 3.7% over 257W): a +50 bps rise in FEDFUNDS historically maps to -5.08% weekly return elasticity on AMZN.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AMZNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

43/100ELEVATED REGIME HEADWIND

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

FEDFUNDS // -0.19 r

Latest: 3.75%