ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AMBA // Ambarella Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001280263 ↗
Technology • Semiconductors
$63.12 ▼ -1.46 (-2.26%)
MKT CAP: $2.85B • VOL: 3.28M
AMBA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // D+ (RQD 52) -> D (RQD 50)
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
50 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +117.3% vs NI +35.2% • ROIC-WACC -24.7% • Z 8.31
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
8 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 34% • VS 200D -4.3% • RSI 47.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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AMBA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.75%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $66.27H $66.27L $63.12C $63.12VOL 1.03M
RES: $84.25SUP: $56.71SMA50: $66.57SMA200: $67.47
$99.07$87.85$76.64$65.42$54.21RES $84.25SUP $56.71$63.122026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
AMBA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 46/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) exhibits 59.2% gross margins and -16.1% return on invested capital within Technology (Semiconductors), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 59.2% gross profitability converts into -21.1% operating margin and -16.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -16.1% // GM: 59.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +37.2% paired with 2.58% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +37.2% // FCF YLD: 2.58%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 8.31 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 8.31 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $63.12 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Semiconductors require continuous execution to defend -19.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -19.4% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 2.58%
GROSS MARGIN 59.2%
OPERATING MARGIN -21.1%
NET MARGIN -19.4%
ROIC % -16.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +37.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 47.4
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AMBAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $57.76
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AMBA & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>