ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AFRM // Affirm Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001820953 ↗
Financials • Finance: Consumer Services
$73.47 ▼ -1.37 (-1.83%)
MKT CAP: $25.36B • VOL: 2.92M
AFRM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 60/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
60 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +106.9% vs NI +110.1% • ROIC-WACC -9.8% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 68% • VS 200D +12.5% • RSI 53.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
15 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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AFRM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.53%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $73.32H $74.84L $73.32C $73.47VOL 2.50M
RES: $95.67SUP: $68.82SMA50: $73.00SMA200: $66.54
$93.11$82.06$71.00$59.95$48.90RES $95.67SUP $68.82$73.472026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
AFRM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 55/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -1.2% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance: Consumer Services), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -7.8% operating margin and -1.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -1.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +34.9% paired with 2.37% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +34.9% // FCF YLD: 2.37%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $73.47 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance: Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend 4.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.96).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 2.37%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -7.8%
NET MARGIN 4.7%
ROIC % -1.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +34.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.96
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AFRMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $67.23
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>