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Stock Ratings / Financials / XP / options
VIRT (56) SNEX (53) GLXY (25) MKTX (83) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

XP Inc. (XP) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$14.29 -5.05% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.13

XP Inc. (XP) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) β†’
ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $7.41B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on XP Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is XP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, XP Inc. (NASDAQ: XP) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $14.29 (-5.05% 1D, market cap $7.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, XP ranks #613 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does XP compare to VIRT and SNEX in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), XP carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, VIRT (Virtu Financial Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $8.34B) and SNEX (StoneX Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 1.5%, cap $6.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SNEX leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while MKTX leads on capital efficiency (28.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XP?
β–Ό

For XP Inc. (XP), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #613 in Financials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.13 (-1.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) β€’ 4.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 49.7% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510051
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (5)SEC (15)Macro (8)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.1% Base Target
$34 Bull$14 Base$11 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE XP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±11.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY XP SCORES 51/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$30.49-0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
56
Grade C$30.42-47.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$16.09-11.2% Next Q
Current
51
Grade D$14.29-1.3% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (59) β†’ D (51)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a XP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While XP currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($22.26) and Max Pain ($15.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $34.37.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XPβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œXP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±11.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (XP)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for XP.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring XP)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of XP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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XP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.76%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $15.05H $15.05L $14.29C $14.29VOL 20.54M
RES: $36.02SUP: $13.70SMA50: $22.26SMA200: $19.17
$34.06$28.56$23.07$17.57$12.07RES $36.02SUP $13.70$14.292026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ XP Butterfly Map β†’ + Track XP β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XP today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XP)

Financials Rank #613 of 1096 βš”οΈ VIRT vs XP Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (XP vs. VIRT, SNEX, GLXY, MKTX)

Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, XP Inc. (XP) ranks #613 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #221 by equity capitalization ($7.41B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SNEX leads on earnings valuation at 21.7x trailing P/E, while MKTX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.4% ROIC and β€” gross margin. MKTX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 83/100 (A-) compared with XP at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
XP ACTIVE
XP Inc.
D 51/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% -5.05% $7.41B Benchmark Subject
VIRT
Virtu Financial Inc.
D+ 56/100 β€” β€” 0.0% -0.83% $8.34B /virt-vs-xp β†’
SNEX
StoneX Group Inc.
D+ 53/100 21.7x β€” 1.5% -3.81% $6.37B /snex-vs-xp β†’
GLXY
Galaxy Digital Inc.
E 25/100 β€” β€” -5.5% -11.75% $6.25B /glxy-vs-xp β†’
MKTX
MarketAxess Holdings Inc.
A- 83/100 23.5x β€” 28.4% +0.23% $5.82B /mktx-vs-xp β†’

2. XP Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

XP Inc. (XP) operates in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (Financials) with an equity capitalization of $7.41B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 30.5x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.

3. XP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, XP Inc. (NASDAQ: XP) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $14.29 (-5.05% 1D, market cap $7.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, XP ranks #613 in composite RQD confidence.

How does XP compare to VIRT and SNEX in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), XP carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, VIRT (Virtu Financial Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $8.34B) and SNEX (StoneX Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 1.5%, cap $6.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SNEX leads on earnings multiple (21.7x) while MKTX leads on capital efficiency (28.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XP?

For XP Inc. (XP), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #613 in Financials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is XP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XP last traded at $14.29 (-5.05% on volume of 20,538,791 shares), positioning the stock -35.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($22.26) and -25.46% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.17). Across its 52-week range of $13.78 to $32.73, XP sits at the 2.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 29.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±11.5% ($12.65 to $15.93).

XP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is XP's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for XP.

Direct Sub-Reports: XP RQD Cockpit XP 12M Forecast XP Earnings & Move XP Dividends & DRIP XP Insiders & 13F XP Whale Options XP Profit Sankey XP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 51/100 (D) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

XP β€” XP Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:10:40Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, XP scores 51 out of 100, grade D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20 (ROIC 9.9%; FCF yield 2.21%). Returns on invested capital are modest and free cash flow yield is thin relative to the share price, which limits the cash-based margin of safety.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 5 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning). This is the weakest pillar, indicating institutional positioning does not currently provide support.
  • Insider Conviction: 12 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). Insider and congressional flow is mixed-to-weak.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 8 / 20 (Beta 1.14; sector sensitivity). Beta above 1 implies the stock has historically amplified market moves, which matters in risk-off regimes.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). This is the strongest pillar and suggests the balance sheet is not the primary concern.

For a prospective investor, the rating implies that upside drivers are not well supported by cash generation or institutional flow, while the balance sheet offers some defensive comfort. Valuation is the key tradeoff: per the market data, P/E (TTM) is 32.8 against EPS (TTM) of 0.46, and the stock is trading at 15.05 after a change of -6.46%, within a 52-week range of $13.78 - $32.73. The rating is a backward-looking quantitative summary and does not constitute personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
15.05$7.8B32.830.5210.460%1.14$13.78 - $32.739.9%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items reference XP with relatedSymbol XP:

  • Yahoo Finance (1h ago, YELLOW): a report on XP's top-performing week, covering market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
  • Investing.com (3h ago, YELLOW): a report titled as a question about a 45% plunge, covering market action and positioning.
  • Barchart.com (6h ago, YELLOW): a report on XP trading at 3-year highs.
  • StockInvest.us (9h ago, YELLOW): a price forecast report.
  • Seeking Alpha (12h ago, GREEN, CATALYST): a report that Brazilian fintech stocks surged on Bolsonaro's lead and political outlook.
  • Benzinga (15h ago, YELLOW): a report on XP stock falling on Monday.

Risk watch items: the feed contains conflicting directional headlines, including a reported 45% decline and a reported 3-year high, which cannot be reconciled from the provided text. The only GREEN-flagged catalyst is the Brazil political item. Proprietary signals per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph: Not available in source data (none provided).

Open Questions

  • What are XP's reported revenue, operating income, net income, EPS, FCF, cash, and debt by period? (Financials source is NONE.)
  • Which direction did the stock actually move recently, given conflicting headlines about a 45% decline and a 3-year high?
  • What is the analyst consensus rating and price target, and how do they compare to the $15.05 price?
  • Who are the 13F institutional holders and insiders, and what are their recent transaction sizes and direction?
  • What are the upstream and downstream dependencies, and how does XP's Brazil exposure map to its earnings?

XP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for XP Inc. (XP) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to XP Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

XP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $14.29?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON XP 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on XP:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $16.25 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is XP (D β€’ RQD 51/100) a Buy at $15.05?

Welcome to the XP (XP Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 51/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.49 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $15.05

Pump the brakes on XP β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on XP, but look at what you are paying: 32.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless XP Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $18.06 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $15.05

XP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on XP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $15.05 (52-wk range $13.78 - $32.73), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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