United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$108.25 +0.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $108.68

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 25% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $91.31B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UPS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $108.25 (+0.86% 1D, market cap $91.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, UPS ranks #20 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UPS compare to ODFL and JBHT in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), UPS carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 24.8%. By comparison, ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 25.5%, cap $35.74B) and JBHT (J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 34.6x, ROIC 15.8%, cap $20.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZTO leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while ODFL leads on capital efficiency (25.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPS?
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Per UPS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001090727), United Parcel Service Inc. generated $88.66B in revenue (-2.6% YoY), $5.57B in net income, and $4.76B in free cash flow against $73.09B in total assets and $17.10B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $108.67 (+0.39%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 5.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510075
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk C+
Cash (16)Whales (14)SEC (16)Macro (11)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.6% Base Target
$138 Bull$117 Base$89 Bear
📬 FREE UPS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UPS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UPS SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.4% FCF Margin ($4.76B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (70.8) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$94.79+3.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$98.52+7.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$106.09+2% Next Q
Current
75
Grade B$108.25+7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UPS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, UPS faces multiple-compression risk if 16.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($99.40) or 200D SMA ($104.58) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($116.53) toward Bear Floor ($88.77).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UPS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UPS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
7.71% Total Yield
5.91% Cash ($6.40/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
68/100 • SAFE COVERAGE
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
73.6% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (11.2% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $28,910

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $2,229/yr
$11.1K
Yr 1
$12.4K
Yr 2
$13.8K
Yr 3
$15.3K
Yr 4
$17.0K
Yr 5
$18.9K
Yr 6
$21.0K
Yr 7
$23.4K
Yr 8
$26.0K
Yr 9
$28.9K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in UPS & A-Rated Leaders

  • ✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on UPS and its top sector peer
  • ✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
UPS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.40%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $105.6H $108.3L $105.6C $108.3VOL 4.42M
RES: $109.2SUP: $87.33SMA50: $99.40SMA200: $104.6
$120.3$112.5$104.7$96.93$89.14RES $109.2SUP $87.33$108.32026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UPS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
9.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UPS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UPS)

Industrials Rank #20 of 485 ⚔️ ODFL vs UPS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (UPS vs. ODFL, JBHT, ZTO, KNX)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) ranks #20 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #15 by equity capitalization ($91.31B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZTO leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while ODFL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.5% ROIC and — gross margin. UPS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UPS ACTIVE
United Parcel Service Inc.
B 75/100 16.4x — 24.8% +0.86% $91.31B Benchmark Subject
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.
C+ 67/100 34.9x — 25.5% +0.12% $35.74B /odfl-vs-ups →
JBHT
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.
C+ 66/100 34.6x — 15.8% -0.44% $20.70B /jbht-vs-ups →
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American
C 65/100 11.8x 25.0% 12.5% +1.36% $15.31B /zto-vs-ups →
KNX
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.
D 48/100 150.9x — 1.9% -0.62% $9.95B /knx-vs-ups →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001090727

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) reported GAAP revenue of $88.66B (-2.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $91.07B , and -2.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $5.57B, operating cash flow of $8.45B, and free cash flow of $4.76B (-23.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPS closed FY2025 with $73.09B in total assets against $17.10B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.57, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $88.66B $5.57B $8.45B $4.76B $73.09B $17.10B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $91.07B $5.78B $10.12B $6.21B $70.07B $16.40B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $90.96B $6.71B $10.24B $6.14B $109.15B $25.54B

3. UPS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UPS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $108.25 (+0.86% 1D, market cap $91.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, UPS ranks #20 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UPS compare to ODFL and JBHT in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), UPS carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 24.8%. By comparison, ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 25.5%, cap $35.74B) and JBHT (J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 34.6x, ROIC 15.8%, cap $20.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZTO leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while ODFL leads on capital efficiency (25.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPS?

Per UPS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001090727), United Parcel Service Inc. generated $88.66B in revenue (-2.6% YoY), $5.57B in net income, and $4.76B in free cash flow against $73.09B in total assets and $17.10B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UPS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UPS last traded at $108.25 (+0.86% on volume of 5,445,791 shares), positioning the stock +8.90% above its 50-day simple moving average ($99.40) and +3.51% above its 200-day simple moving average ($104.58). Across its 52-week range of $90.84 to $122.41, UPS sits at the 55.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 70.8 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($102.84 to $113.66).

UPS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does UPS pay a dividend and is it safe?

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) offers a 5.91% cash dividend yield ($6.40 annualized) and 7.71% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as SAFE COVERAGE.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

UPS — United Parcel Service Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:10:02Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, UPS scores 75 out of 100 (grade B, verdict "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward"). Across the five pillars, the fundamental cash engine scores 16 of 20 (ROIC 24.8%; FCF yield 5.22%), suggesting the business generates strong returns on invested capital relative to its size. Whale/13F flow scores 14 of 20, indicating institutional accumulation and options positioning that are supportive but not dominant. Insider conviction scores 18 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), the highest pillar, which the rating treats as a meaningful positive signal. Macro regime fit scores 11 of 20 (Beta 1.12; sector sensitivity), the weakest pillar, meaning the stock is expected to move more than the market and remains exposed to sector conditions. Forensic balance sheet scores 16 of 20 (Altman Z 3.57; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.91), pointing to a financially sound profile. For a prospective investor, the upside drivers in this framework are cash generation, insider and institutional signals, and balance-sheet strength. The main tradeoffs are macro and sector sensitivity, as reflected in the 1.12 beta, and a valuation that the market data places at 16.4x trailing earnings. The rating is a structured scoring output and does not constitute personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$107.33$91.31B16.415.39.16.555.91%1.12$90.84 - $122.4124.8%

Business

United Parcel Service Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, within the Trucking Freight/Courier Services industry, per the company profile. The profile describes the company as operating in this industry with a market capitalization of $91.3B. The source data does not itemize customer segments or revenue mix. Monetization is reflected in reported revenue of $88661.0M for FY 2025 per the SEC financials, but the source data does not describe how that revenue is generated.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$88661.0M$7867.0M$5572.0MN/A$4765.0M$5887.0M$17103.1M
FY 2024$91070.0M$8468.0M$5782.0MN/A$6213.0M$6112.0M$16396.4M
FY 2023$90958.0M$9141.0M$6708.0MN/A$6144.9MN/A$25541.0M

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $90958.0M (FY 2023) to $88661.0M (FY 2025), and net income moved from $6708.0M to $5572.0M over the same span. The market data reports an operating margin of 8.9%, a net margin of 6.3%, and ROIC of 24.8%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.57 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 of 9, with Debt/Equity at 0.91. Gross margin is reported as 0% in the market data, which the source data does not explain.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items, all tagged relatedSymbol UPS and rated YELLOW. Headlines reference a "Secure Commerce launch," characterized in one headline as potentially undervaluing the stock by about 20%, a "Protected Delivery" addition for 2026 holidays, and a view that "Bottom Might Be In, But Upside Is Limited." Other items describe the stock as a potential value opportunity and as a most-watched name. Per the news wire, these items are market commentary, and the source data does not include their underlying detail. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not establish upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks. The only sector context provided is the Industrials classification and the Trucking Freight/Courier Services industry, along with the beta of 1.12 that the RQD rating uses in its macro regime pillar.

Open Questions

  • What drove the decline in revenue and net income between FY 2023 and FY 2025, and is the trend expected to continue?
  • The source data reports gross margin as 0% and EPS as N/A in all periods; what explains these entries?
  • What does the "Secure Commerce" launch referenced in the news wire involve, and what financial impact does it carry?
  • Which holder and insider transactions underpin the 18 of 20 insider conviction score, given that the holders section is empty?
  • How much of the cash and debt position changed between periods, given FY 2023 cash is listed as N/A?

UPS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UPS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UPS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $108.25?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UPS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UPS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $126.65 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is UPS (B • RQD 75/100) a Buy at $107.33?

Welcome to the UPS (United Parcel Service Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 75/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Trucking Freight/Courier Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (24.8% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $80.50 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $107.33

Pump the brakes on UPS — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on UPS, but look at what you are paying: 16.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless United Parcel Service Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $126.65 (+18.0%)
Spot @ $107.33

UPS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on UPS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Trucking Freight/Courier Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $107.33 (52-wk range $90.84 - $122.41), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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