COMP <GO>
ZTO vs UPS // EV/EBITDA & P/E VALUATION
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (NYSE) VS. United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE) • 15-METRIC TALLY: ZTO 8
— UPS 5
▲ EV/EBITDA & P/E VALUATION LEADER: ZTO
LAST: $20.15 (+1.36%) • MKT CAP: $15.31B
valuation
7.2x
LAST: $108.25 (+0.86%) • MKT CAP: $91.31B
valuation
9.1x
15-METRIC INSTITUTIONAL SIDE-BY-SIDE SCORECARD (ZTO VS. UPS)
EMERALD CELL = QUANTITATIVE EDGE
| INSTITUTIONAL METRIC | ZTO | UPS | SPREAD (A - B) | ADVANTAGE | DEDICATED URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | 25.00% | — | — | TIE | /gross-margins <GO> |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 12.50% | 24.80% | -12.30 | UPS | /roic <GO> |
| EV/EBITDA & P/E Valuation ACTIVE | 7.2x | 9.1x | -1.90 | ZTO | /valuation <GO> |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 6.31% | 5.22% | +1.09 | ZTO | /fcf-yield <GO> |
| Operating Margin | 21.30% | 8.90% | +12.40 | ZTO | /operating-margins <GO> |
| Net Profit Margin | 18.50% | 6.30% | +12.20 | ZTO | /net-margins <GO> |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 6.60% | -2.60% | +9.20 | ZTO | /revenue-growth <GO> |
| Dividend Yield & FCF Payout Safety | 3.51% | 5.91% | -2.40 | UPS | /dividend-safety <GO> |
| Altman Z-Score & Debt/Equity | 4.41 | 3.57 | +0.84 | ZTO | /balance-sheet <GO> |
| Piotroski F-Score Quality | 8/9 | 7/9 | +1.00 | ZTO | /piotroski-score <GO> |
| Options Implied Move & Put/Call Skew | — | — | — | TIE | /options-implied-move <GO> |
| RSI-14 & 200D SMA Momentum | 46.0 | 70.8 | -24.80 | UPS | /rsi-technicals <GO> |
| 10Y Yield & FRED Macro Beta | 1.11 | 1.12 | -0.01 | UPS | /macro-sensitivity <GO> |
| Forward P/E Multiple | 11.0x | 15.3x | -4.30 | ZTO | /forward-pe <GO> |
| Enterprise Scale & Market Cap | $15.31B | $91.31B | -$76.01B | UPS | /market-cap <GO> |
5-YEAR HISTORICAL XBRL REVENUE & MARGIN TRAJECTORY SEC FORM 10-K FY
| FISCAL YEAR | ZTO REV | UPS REV | ZTO GROSS % | UPS GROSS % | ZTO FCF | UPS FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $7.02B | $88.66B | 25.0% | — | $965.8M | $4.76B |
| FY 2024 | $6.07B | $91.07B | 31.0% | — | $852.3M | $6.21B |
| FY 2023 | $0 | $90.96B | — | — | $1.88B | $6.14B |
FRED MACRO REGIME CORRELATION COMPARISON PEARSON r
ZTO // BETA 1.11
UPS // BETA 1.12