Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ULCC / dividends

JBLU (23) ALGT (35) AERO (46) RJET (48) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$6.45 -0.46% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.43

Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 34/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.49B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ULCC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ULCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ULCC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $6.45 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $1.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 4/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ULCC ranks #822 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ULCC compare to JBLU and ALGT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ULCC carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, JBLU (JetBlue Airways Corporation) holds a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.15B) and ALGT (Allegiant Travel Company) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.1%, cap $1.99B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULCC?

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Per ULCC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001670076), Frontier Group Holdings Inc. generated $3.72B in revenue (-1.4% YoY), -$137.0M in net income, and -$525.0M in free cash flow against $7.22B in total assets and $313.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.43 (-0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ULCC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (34/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ULCC SCORES 34/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (47% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 64% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 63.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$5.68-18.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$4.61+6.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.91+31.4% Next Q

Current

Grade E$6.45-8.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (26) → E (34)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ULCC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ULCC currently carries a cautious 34/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.73) and Max Pain ($6.77) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ULCC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ULCC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 34%NO 66%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

1.8% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $307/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.6K

Yr 1

$11.1K

Yr 2

$11.7K

Yr 3

$12.4K

Yr 4

$13.1K

Yr 5

$13.8K

Yr 6

$14.5K

Yr 7

$15.3K

Yr 8

$16.2K

Yr 9

$17.1K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ULCC)

✓Walkthrough of ULCC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ULCC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +57.70%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $6.17H $6.48L $6.17C $6.45VOL 5.22M

RES: $6.46SUP: $4.25SMA50: $5.73SMA200: $5.43

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ULCC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ULCC Butterfly Map → + Track ULCC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ULCC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ULCC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ULCC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ULCC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #822 of 1011 ⚔️ JBLU vs ULCC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ULCC vs. JBLU, ALGT, AERO, RJET)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) ranks #822 by composite RQD confidence (34/100, grade E) and #458 by equity capitalization ($1.49B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJET leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while RJET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.1% ROIC and — gross margin. RJET currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with ULCC at 34/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ULCC ACTIVE Frontier Group Holdings Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.46%	$1.49B	Benchmark Subject
JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation	E	23/100	—	—	-35.0%	-6.56%	$1.15B	/jblu-vs-ulcc →
ALGT Allegiant Travel Company	D-	35/100	—	—	1.1%	-2.09%	$1.99B	/algt-vs-ulcc →
AERO Grupo Aeromexico S.A.B. de C.V. (each representing ten (10) )	D	46/100	—	—	—	-1.71%	$2.22B	/aero-vs-ulcc →
RJET Republic Airways Holdings Inc.	D	48/100	12.3x	—	11.1%	-3.25%	$935.0M	/rjet-vs-ulcc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001670076

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) reported GAAP revenue of $3.72B (-1.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.77B , and +3.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$137.0M, operating cash flow of -$525.0M, and free cash flow of -$525.0M (-540.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ULCC closed FY2025 with $7.22B in total assets against $313.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.40, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.72B	-$137.0M	-$525.0M	-$525.0M	$7.22B	$313.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.77B	$85.0M	-$82.0M	-$82.0M	$6.15B	$241.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.59B	-$11.0M	-$261.0M	-$261.0M	—	—

3. ULCC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ULCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ULCC compare to JBLU and ALGT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULCC?

Where is ULCC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ULCC last traded at $6.45 (-0.46% on volume of 3,642,400 shares), positioning the stock +12.57% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.73) and +18.78% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.43). Across its 52-week range of $3.02 to $8.40, ULCC sits at the 63.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.64 to $7.26).

ULCC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does ULCC pay a dividend and is it safe?

Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 1.8% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: ULCC RQD Cockpit ULCC 12M Forecast ULCC Earnings & Move ULCC Dividends & DRIP ULCC Insiders & 13F ULCC Whale Options ULCC Profit Sankey ULCC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 34/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ULCC — Frontier Group Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:28:57Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ULCC scores 34 out of 100, earning a letter grade of E and the verdict label "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." Across the five pillars:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 1 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -35% and FCF yield is 0%. This pillar is the weakest and indicates the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital.
Whale 13F Flow: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. It is the strongest pillar, though the source does not itemize the underlying 13F holdings (see Analyst View section).
Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scoring low.
Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and the score reflects sector sensitivity.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 4 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 0.4, Piotroski F is 1/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.64. These are weak forensic readings.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating implies that the upside case rests mainly on institutional positioning rather than on earnings or cash generation. The weak Fundamental and Forensic pillars point to elevated balance-sheet and profitability risk. The valuation tradeoff is that the reported financials do not provide P/E or EV/EBITDA figures in the source data, so the price cannot be benchmarked against earnings in this dossier. This is an analytical summary, not personalized financial advice.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$3724.0M	$-149.0M	$-137.0M	N/A	$-525.0M	$671.0M	$313.0M
FY 2024	$3775.0M	$58.0M	$85.0M	N/A	$-82.0M	$740.0M	$241.0M
FY 2023	$3589.0M	$-3.0M	$-11.0M	N/A	$-261.0M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue moved from $3775.0M in FY 2024 to $3724.0M in FY 2025, and operating income moved from $58.0M to $-149.0M. Per the market data, operating margin is -4%, net margin is -3.7%, and gross margin is 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -35%, Altman Z is 0.4, and Piotroski F is 1/9. Per the RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 0.64. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 free cash flow was $-525.0M against cash of $671.0M and debt of $313.0M.

Open Questions

What is the company's actual business model and revenue mix, since the source data gives only sector and industry labels?
What drove the swing from FY 2024 net income of $85.0M to FY 2025 net loss of $-137.0M, and is the FY 2025 free cash flow outflow of $-525.0M expected to recur?
What are the TTM EPS and forward valuation multiples, which the source data does not provide?
What do the 13F and insider transactions behind the 16/20 and 3/20 pillar scores actually consist of?
What is the cash and debt position for FY 2023, which the source data lists as N/A?

ULCC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ULCC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 11h ago

Why Frontier (ULCC) stock is trading up today

Yahoo Finance report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST The Motley Fool • 14h ago

Why Frontier Group Holdings Stock Gained Altitude This Week

The Motley Fool report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 17h ago

Frontier Group Holdings (Nasdaq:ULCC) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall St report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

Will Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Report Negative Earnings Next Week? What You Should Know

Yahoo Finance report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockStory • 1d ago

StockStory report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago

(ULCC) Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Expects Q4 Adjusted EPS Range $-0.15 - $0.05

marketscreener.com report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Is Down 15.2% After Mounting Concerns Over Negative EBITDA And Dilution Potential

Yahoo Finance report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE ChartMill • 11h ago

US Gap Movers: Top Gap-Up and Gap-Down Stocks in Today's Session

Today's US gap movers include CLRO, EVGO, PERI and NVA on the gap-up list, while DRUG, JDZG, JAGX and SVRN lead the gap-down list.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ULCC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.45?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ULCC 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.70 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ULCC (E • RQD 34/100) a Buy at $6.48?

Welcome to the ULCC (Frontier Group Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 34/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Air Freight/Delivery Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.99 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $6.48

Pump the brakes on ULCC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ULCC, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Frontier Group Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.16 (+25.9%)

Spot @ $6.48

ULCC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ULCC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Air Freight/Delivery Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $6.48 (52-wk range $3.02 - $8.40), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.