Stock Ratings / Financials / ORI / options

THG (77) KNSL (78) AXS (48) AFG (74) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$38.52 +0.21% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.46

Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $9.30B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ORI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ORI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Old Republic International Corporation (NYSE: ORI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $38.52 (+0.21% 1D, market cap $9.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ORI ranks #355 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ORI compare to THG and KNSL in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), ORI carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.3%. By comparison, THG (Hanover Insurance Group Inc) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 12.4x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $8.32B) and KNSL (Kinsale Capital Group Inc.) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $8.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AXS leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while KNSL leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORI?

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Per ORI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000074260), Old Republic International Corporation generated $9.14B in revenue (+11.0% YoY), $935.4M in net income, and $753.2M in free cash flow against $29.86B in total assets and $10.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.46 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 8.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ORI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ORI SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$38.41+4.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$40.13-6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$37.73+2.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$38.52+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ORI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, ORI faces multiple-compression risk if 9.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.44) or 200D SMA ($40.36) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($39.04) toward Bear Floor ($30.45).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ORI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ORI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.3%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ORI)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ORI.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ORI & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ORI
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ORI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.08%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $38.44H $38.52L $38.44C $38.52VOL 1.89M

RES: $43.71SUP: $35.69SMA50: $39.44SMA200: $40.36

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ORI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ORI Butterfly Map → + Track ORI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-1.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ORI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ORI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ORI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ORI)

Financials Rank #355 of 1096 ⚔️ THG vs ORI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ORI vs. THG, KNSL, AXS, AFG)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) ranks #355 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #196 by equity capitalization ($9.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AXS leads on earnings valuation at 7.3x trailing P/E, while KNSL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.8% ROIC and — gross margin. KNSL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with ORI at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ORI ACTIVE Old Republic International Corporation	C-	61/100	9.9x	—	7.3%	+0.21%	$9.30B	Benchmark Subject
THG Hanover Insurance Group Inc	B+	77/100	12.4x	—	9.1%	+2.96%	$8.32B	/thg-vs-ori →
KNSL Kinsale Capital Group Inc.	B+	78/100	16.2x	—	13.8%	+0.76%	$8.23B	/knsl-vs-ori →
AXS Axis Capital Holdings Limited	D	48/100	7.3x	—	5.6%	+1.97%	$7.52B	/axs-vs-ori →
AFG American Financial Group Inc.	B	74/100	15.1x	—	5.7%	+0.50%	$12.76B	/afg-vs-ori →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000074260

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) reported GAAP revenue of $9.14B (+11.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.23B , and +25.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $935.4M, operating cash flow of $1.16B, and free cash flow of $753.2M (-12.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ORI closed FY2025 with $29.86B in total assets against $10.77B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$9.14B	$935.4M	$1.16B	$753.2M	$29.86B	$10.77B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$8.23B	$852.7M	$1.23B	$863.0M	$27.84B	$10.00B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$7.26B	$598.6M	$880.4M	$553.8M	$8.71B	$2.04B

3. ORI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ORI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ORI compare to THG and KNSL in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORI?

Where is ORI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORI last traded at $38.52 (+0.21% on volume of 1,894,865 shares), positioning the stock -2.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($39.44) and -4.56% below its 200-day simple moving average ($40.36). Across its 52-week range of $36.65 to $46.76, ORI sits at the 18.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($36.86 to $40.18).

ORI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ORI's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ORI.

Direct Sub-Reports: ORI RQD Cockpit ORI 12M Forecast ORI Earnings & Move ORI Dividends & DRIP ORI Insiders & 13F ORI Whale Options ORI Profit Sankey ORI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 61/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ORI — Old Republic International Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ORI scores 60 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12 of 20 (ROIC 7.3%; FCF yield 8.12%); Whale 13F Flow at 7 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 17 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 9 of 20 (Beta 1; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar is insider conviction, and the weakest is institutional flow. For a prospective investor, the profile suggests a stock where balance-sheet and insider signals are comparatively supportive, while institutional positioning and macro fit contribute less. Upside drivers cited in the source data center on the cash-flow yield and the forensic balance-sheet readings. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 9.9 and a forward P/E of 9.2, against an ROIC of 7.3%. The 8.43% dividend yield is reported alongside these figures. The Hold verdict reflects that these factors do not combine into a strong conviction signal in either direction.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
38.44	$9.28B	9.9	9.2	10.6	3.87	8.43%	1	$36.65 - $46.76	7.3%

Business

Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Property-Casualty Insurers industry. Per the company profile, the market capitalization is $9.3B. The source data does not specify its products, customer base, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$9136.3M	$1103.8M	$935.4M	N/A	$753.2M	N/A	$10770.4M
FY 2024	$8231.5M	$1006.2M	$852.7M	N/A	$863.0M	N/A	$10000.8M
FY 2023	$7258.3M	$706.3M	$598.6M	N/A	$553.8M	N/A	$2038.1M

Per the SEC financials, revenue, operating income, and net income rose across the three reported years, and reported net income for FY 2025 was $935.4M. Per the market data, operating margin is 12.5%, net margin is 10.2%, and ROIC is 7.3%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, both per the Roarable RQD forensic pillar. Debt rose from $2038.1M in FY 2023 to $10770.4M in FY 2025, and the Debt/Equity ratio is reported as 0.5. Gross margin is reported as 0%, and cash balances are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, ORI-related coverage includes an earnings-call highlights piece on Q3 results, a Q3 2026 earnings call presentation dated 2026-10-22, and a marketscreener.com flash reporting Q3 revenue of $2.55B against a FactSet estimate of $2.49B. A Seeking Alpha piece is headlined "Buybacks Can't Fix Underwriting Pressure," and it is the only item tagged GREEN as a catalyst. The remaining items are tagged YELLOW as market-wire coverage. A MarketBeat item reports an institutional purchase of 86,670 shares by ASK Capital Investment Managers LLC. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What are the cash and EPS figures for the reported fiscal years, given that both are marked N/A in the source data?
What underlying drivers explain the increase in debt from $2038.1M in FY 2023 to $10770.4M in FY 2025?
What does the "underwriting pressure" referenced in the Seeking Alpha headline consist of, and how does it relate to the reported margins?
What specific 13F institutional holders and insider transactions make up the Whale and Insider pillar scores?
What is the company's revenue mix and customer base, which the source data does not describe?

ORI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ORI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 15h ago

Old Republic International Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

Yahoo Finance report covering Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 18h ago

Old Republic International Corporation 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:ORI) 2026-10-22

Seeking Alpha report covering Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 21h ago

Earnings Flash (ORI) Old Republic International Corporation Reports Q3 Revenue $2.55B, vs. FactSet Est of $2.49B

marketscreener.com report covering Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

OLD REPUBLIC ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2026 EARNINGS CALL

Yahoo Finance report covering Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

86,670 Shares of Old Republic International Corporation $ORI Bought by ASK Capital Investment Managers LLC

MarketBeat report covering Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Old Republic: Buybacks Can't Fix Underwriting Pressure (NYSE:ORI)

Seeking Alpha report covering Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

OLD REPUBLIC REPORTS RESULTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER AND FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2026

TradingView report covering Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

3 Prominent Value Stocks Trading Up To 47.9% Below Intrinsic Valuations

Simply Wall St report covering Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ORI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $38.52?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ORI 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $41.52 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ORI (C- • RQD 60/100) a Buy at $38.44?

Welcome to the ORI (Old Republic International Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 60/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Property-Casualty Insurers. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $29.21 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $38.44

Pump the brakes on ORI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ORI, but look at what you are paying: 9.9x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Old Republic International Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $48.82 (+27.0%)

Spot @ $38.44

ORI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ORI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Property-Casualty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $38.44 (52-wk range $36.65 - $46.76), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.