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Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$104.87 +1.97% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $105.04

Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.38B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AXS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Axis Capital Holdings Limited (NYSE: AXS) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $104.87 (+1.97% 1D, market cap $7.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AXS ranks #706 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AXS compare to KNSL and THG in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), AXS carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, KNSL (Kinsale Capital Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $8.17B) and THG (Hanover Insurance Group Inc) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 12.4x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $8.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AXS leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while KNSL leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AXS?

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Per AXS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001214816), Axis Capital Holdings Limited generated $6.56B in revenue (+10.2% YoY), $1.01B in net income, and -$336.3M in free cash flow against $34.46B in total assets and $12.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $105.04 (+0.16%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AXS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AXS SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.3% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 18.1% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$97.55+3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$100.52+1.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$102.24+2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$104.87-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AXS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AXS currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($98.89) and Max Pain ($110.11) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $125.99.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AXS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AXS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

59.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE46% OF RANGE

L: $92$104.87H: $120

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AXS

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (25)

5.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -4.56% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (50)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AXS

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AXS)

✓Walkthrough of AXS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AXS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.10%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $101.6H $104.9L $101.6C $104.9VOL 1.00M

RES: $105.4SUP: $90.03SMA50: $98.89SMA200: $102.0

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AXS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AXS Butterfly Map → + Track AXS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-7.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AXS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AXS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AXS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AXS)

Financials Rank #706 of 1096 ⚔️ KNSL vs AXS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AXS vs. KNSL, THG, ESNT, RLI)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) ranks #706 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #222 by equity capitalization ($7.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AXS leads on earnings valuation at 7.3x trailing P/E, while KNSL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.8% ROIC and — gross margin. RLI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with AXS at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AXS ACTIVE Axis Capital Holdings Limited	D	48/100	7.3x	—	5.6%	+1.97%	$7.38B	Benchmark Subject
KNSL Kinsale Capital Group Inc.	B+	76/100	16.2x	—	13.8%	+0.76%	$8.17B	/knsl-vs-axs →
THG Hanover Insurance Group Inc	B+	77/100	12.4x	—	9.1%	+2.96%	$8.19B	/thg-vs-axs →
ESNT Essent Group Ltd.	B+	77/100	8.8x	—	11.9%	-0.86%	$6.08B	/esnt-vs-axs →
RLI RLI Corp.	B+	80/100	14.7x	—	13.5%	+0.94%	$5.93B	/rli-vs-axs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001214816

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) reported GAAP revenue of $6.56B (+10.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.96B , and +16.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.01B, operating cash flow of -$40.9M, and free cash flow of -$336.3M (-121.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AXS closed FY2025 with $34.46B in total assets against $12.65B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$6.56B	$1.01B	-$40.9M	-$336.3M	$34.46B	$12.65B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$5.96B	$1.08B	$1.84B	$1.58B	$32.68B	$11.97B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$5.64B	$376.3M	$1.26B	$1.00B	$6.77B	$1.58B

3. AXS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AXS compare to KNSL and THG in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AXS?

Where is AXS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AXS last traded at $104.87 (+1.97% on volume of 976,377 shares), positioning the stock +6.05% above its 50-day simple moving average ($98.89) and +2.81% above its 200-day simple moving average ($102.00). Across its 52-week range of $92.23 to $119.99, AXS sits at the 45.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($100.36 to $109.38).

AXS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AXS stock right now?

Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 48/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 7x P/E (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AXS's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AXS's 12-month base price target is $100.15 (range $78.12 to $125.99), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AXS RQD Cockpit AXS 12M Forecast AXS Earnings & Move AXS Dividends & DRIP AXS Insiders & 13F AXS Whale Options AXS Profit Sankey AXS News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AXS — Axis Capital Holdings Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:18:16Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AXS scores 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." Across the five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 5 of 20 (ROIC 5.6%; FCF yield -4.56%), indicating the weakest contribution to the overall score. Whale 13F Flow scores 12 of 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider Conviction scores 9 of 20 for SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 9 of 20 (Beta 0.98; sector sensitivity). Forensic Balance Sheet scores 13 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5), the strongest pillar.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the pillar pattern points to a valuation that looks inexpensive on earnings multiples (P/E TTM 7.3, Forward P/E 6.8) but a cash-generation profile that the rating treats as weak: the negative FCF yield and 5.6% ROIC are the main drags. Balance sheet metrics are comparatively supportive, which is the principal offset. Upside drivers in this framework would require FCF conversion improving from the FY 2025 level; valuation tradeoffs center on whether a low earnings multiple adequately compensates for negative free cash flow.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
102.84	$7.38B	7.3	6.8	12.4	14.06	1.93%	0.98	$92.23 - $119.99	5.6%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$6563.7M	$1190.5M	$1008.9M	N/A	$-336.3M	$820.3M	$12647.5M
FY 2024	$5957.7M	$1276.5M	$1081.8M	N/A	$1576.7M	$2143.5M	$11966.4M
FY 2023	$5643.4M	$444.0M	$376.3M	N/A	$1001.6M	N/A	$1584.7M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $5643.4M (FY 2023) to $6563.7M (FY 2025), while FCF moved from $1576.7M (FY 2024) to $-336.3M (FY 2025). Per the market data, operating margin is 18.8%, net margin 15.4%, and gross margin 0%, with ROIC at 5.6%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Reported debt rose from $1584.7M (FY 2023) to $12647.5M (FY 2025).

Open Questions

What drove the swing from $1576.7M FCF in FY 2024 to $-336.3M in FY 2025, and is it recurring or timing-related?
What explains the increase in reported debt from $1584.7M (FY 2023) to $12647.5M (FY 2025)?
What is the composition of the Recent news items, and do the "Statement re Possible Offer" and "Update" headlines relate to any fundamental event?
Why is EPS reported as N/A across all three periods while TTM EPS is 14.06?
What is the consensus rating, price target distribution, and any insider or 13F ownership activity?

AXS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AXS Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 12h ago

REG - Axis Capital Limited Permanent TSB Group - Statement re Possible Offer

TradingView report covering Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 15h ago

REG - Axis Bank Ltd Axis Bank Ltd (AXBA) - Update

TradingView report covering Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Benzinga • 18h ago

Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Axis Capital Holdings, Raises Price Target to $122

Wells Fargo analyst Elyse Greenspan maintains Axis Capital Holdings (NYSE:AXS) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $112 to $122.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 2d ago

The 5 most interesting analyst questions from AXIS Capital’s Q3 earnings call

AXIS Capital’s third quarter results surpassed Wall Street’s expectations, driven by strong premium growth across its specialty insurance lines and solid contributions from new and expanded classes. Management highlighte

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 2d ago

How Investors Are Reacting To AXIS Capital Holdings (AXS) Earnings Beat

AXIS Capital Holdings reported Q3 2026 revenue of US$1,789.93 million and net income of US$209.08 million, alongside active share repurchases that completed a US$146.63 million buyback program announced earlier in the ye

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo • 2d ago

AXIS Capital Holdings (AXS) Has Fresh Attention, But What Is The Market Missing?

AXIS Capital Holdings (AXS) just posted third quarter 2026 results, giving investors fresh numbers to work with on both the income statement and the share price chart. AXIS Capital Holdings shares have picked up momentum

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 2d ago

AXIS Capital (AXS) Stock May Be Undervalued As Strong Q3 Earnings Land

AXIS Capital Holdings has delivered a powerful run over the past few years, which now puts a spotlight on whether the current share price lines up with what its earnings can support. With the stock recently closing at US

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST ChartMill • 3d ago

Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (NYSE:AXS) Screens as an Undervalued Value Stock

Axis Capital (AXS) fits the Decent Value screen: cheap valuation, decent profitability and health, but weak ROIC and liquidity risks warrant caution.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AXS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $104.87?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AXS 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $111.07 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AXS (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $102.84?

Welcome to the AXS (Axis Capital Holdings Limited) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Property-Casualty Insurers. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $77.13 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $102.84

Pump the brakes on AXS — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AXS, but look at what you are paying: 7.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Axis Capital Holdings Limited expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $126.49 (+23.0%)

Spot @ $102.84

AXS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AXS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Property-Casualty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $102.84 (52-wk range $92.23 - $119.99), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.