What is RLI's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

RLI's 12-month base price target is $73.9 (range $55.14 to $87.2), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / RLI

ESNT (77) SIGI (74) MTG (72) MCY (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

RLI Corp. (RLI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell RLI stock right now?

RLI Corp. (RLI) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy — BUY) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

$67.24 +3.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $67.77

RLI Corp. (RLI) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $5.98B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RLI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RLI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, RLI Corp. (NYSE: RLI) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $67.24 (+3.08% 1D, market cap $5.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, RLI ranks #7 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RLI compare to ESNT and SIGI in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), RLI carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.5%. By comparison, ESNT (Essent Group Ltd.) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 11.9%, cap $6.02B) and SIGI (Selective Insurance Group Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $5.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTG leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while MCY leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RLI?

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Per RLI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000084246), RLI Corp. generated $1.88B in revenue (+6.3% YoY), $403.3M in net income, and $608.7M in free cash flow against $6.16B in total assets and $1.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $67.77 (+0.79%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 32.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 80/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.3% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RLI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (80/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RLI SCORES 80/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk15/20 pts (-5 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 5 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$57.63+10.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$63.90-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$63.76+5.5% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$67.24+8.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (72) → B+ (80)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RLI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 80/100 (B+) score, RLI faces multiple-compression risk if 14.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($60.61) or 200D SMA ($58.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($73.90) toward Bear Floor ($55.14).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RLI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RLI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 80%NO 20%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

6530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

9 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE99% OF RANGE

L: $47$67.24H: $67

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: A-RQD 34 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 31 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on RLI

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

13.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 10.27% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (83)

34/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like RLI

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (RLI Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

RLI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +32.54%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $64.62H $67.24L $64.62C $67.24VOL 950.0K

RES: $67.33SUP: $53.26SMA50: $60.61SMA200: $58.67

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RLI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RLI Butterfly Map → + Track RLI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

6.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RLI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RLI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RLI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RLI)

Financials Rank #7 of 1096 ⚔️ ESNT vs RLI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RLI vs. ESNT, SIGI, MTG, MCY)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, RLI Corp. (RLI) ranks #7 by composite RQD confidence (80/100, grade B+) and #243 by equity capitalization ($5.98B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTG leads on earnings valuation at 8.0x trailing P/E, while MCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.4% ROIC and — gross margin. RLI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 80/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RLI ACTIVE RLI Corp.	B+	80/100	14.7x	—	13.5%	+3.08%	$5.98B	Benchmark Subject
ESNT Essent Group Ltd.	B+	77/100	8.8x	—	11.9%	+1.82%	$6.02B	/esnt-vs-rli →
SIGI Selective Insurance Group Inc.	B	74/100	12.6x	—	6.8%	+1.95%	$5.83B	/sigi-vs-rli →
MTG MGIC Investment Corporation	B	72/100	8.0x	—	13.2%	+1.87%	$5.83B	/mtg-vs-rli →
MCY Mercury General Corporation	B	72/100	10.5x	—	22.4%	+1.28%	$5.67B	/mcy-vs-rli →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000084246

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), RLI Corp. (RLI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.88B (+6.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.77B , and +24.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $403.3M, operating cash flow of $614.2M, and free cash flow of $608.7M (+9.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, RLI closed FY2025 with $6.16B in total assets against $1.97B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.88B	$403.3M	$614.2M	$608.7M	$6.16B	$1.97B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.77B	$345.8M	$560.2M	$555.5M	$5.63B	$1.85B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.51B	$304.6M	$464.3M	$396.2M	$3.26B	$762.9M

3. RLI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RLI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does RLI compare to ESNT and SIGI in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RLI?

Where is RLI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RLI last traded at $67.24 (+3.08% on volume of 734,923 shares), positioning the stock +10.94% above its 50-day simple moving average ($60.61) and +14.61% above its 200-day simple moving average ($58.67). Across its 52-week range of $47.26 to $67.28, RLI sits at the 99.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($63.54 to $70.94).

Direct Sub-Reports: RLI RQD Cockpit RLI 12M Forecast RLI Earnings & Move RLI Dividends & DRIP RLI Insiders & 13F RLI Whale Options RLI Profit Sankey RLI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 80/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RLI — RLI Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

RLI Corp. (RLI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 80/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $67.24 (+3.08% 1D, market capitalization $5.98B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 26.1%, and free cash flow yield of 10.27%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (16/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.13x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

RLI Corp. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Property-Casualty Insurers industry. It is a Delaware common stock issuer with a market capitalization of $5.9B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), RLI Corp. (RLI) reported $1.88B in annual revenue (up from $1.77B in FY2024, +6.3% YoY) and $403.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.51B revenue, $304.6M net income) through FY2025, RLI scaled operating cash flow to $614.2M and free cash flow to $608.7M, backed by $6.16B in total assets against $1.97B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 80/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $47.26 – $67.28 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.7x trailing P/E and 14.2x EV/EBITDA against 26.1% operating margins and a 1.13x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations beyond the Financials sector and Property-Casualty Insurers industry labels. A prospective investor should note that second-order ripples such as catastrophe-loss cycles, reinsurance pricing, or interest-rate effects on investment income are not quantified in the supplied data and would need independent verification.

Key Question #1: Can RLI sustain or expand its 26.1% operating margin and 13.5% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.88B and free cash flow of $608.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.97B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is RLI's 13.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.13x)?

RLI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for RLI Corp. (RLI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RLI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

RLI (RLI) Stock Price Gains Ground After Q3 Margin Discipline

Yahoo Finance report covering RLI Corp. (RLI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 23h ago

Wells Fargo raises RLI stock price target on durable margins

Investing.com report covering RLI Corp. (RLI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

5 Must-Read Analyst Questions From RLI’s Q3 Earnings Call

Yahoo Finance report covering RLI Corp. (RLI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

RLI (RLI) Prepares to Report Q3 Earnings Amid Modest Undervaluat

GuruFocus report covering RLI Corp. (RLI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

RLI: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors

Yahoo Finance report covering RLI Corp. (RLI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Keefe Bruyette raises RLI stock price target to $74 on strong results

Investing.com report covering RLI Corp. (RLI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

RLI (RLI) Q3 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For

Yahoo Finance report covering RLI Corp. (RLI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

RLI Corp.: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

Yahoo Finance report covering RLI Corp. (RLI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RLI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $67.24?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RLI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $75.01 (+15.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

RLI scores 18/20 on insider conviction and 10.27% FCF yield, with FY 2025 FCF of $608.7M exceeding net income of $403.3M.

RLI scores 18/20 on insider conviction and 10.27% FCF yield, with FY 2025 FCF of $608.7M exceeding net income of $403.3M.. When you look under the hood at RLI, Fundamental Cash Engine is 15/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 13.5% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (16/20) has been quietly accumulating below $67.28. My 12M target is $75.01.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on 14.7x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Property-Casualty Insurers. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $50.23 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $65.23

Reported debt rose from $762.9M in FY 2023 to $1.97B in FY 2025, and the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph provides no supply-chain links

Careful chasing RLI at $65.23. Reported debt rose from $762.9M in FY 2023 to $1.97B in FY 2025, and the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph provides no supply-chain links to assess that exposure.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 26.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $50.23 on multiple compression.