Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$242.09 +2.96% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $243.96

Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 77/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $8.19B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is THG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Hanover Insurance Group Inc (NYSE: THG) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $242.09 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $8.19B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, THG ranks #18 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does THG compare to KNSL and AXS in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), THG carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, KNSL (Kinsale Capital Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $8.17B) and AXS (Axis Capital Holdings Limited) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 7.3x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $7.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AXS leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while KNSL leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for THG?
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Per THG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000944695), Hanover Insurance Group Inc generated $6.59B in revenue (+5.7% YoY), $662.5M in net income, and $1.17B in free cash flow against $16.95B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $243.95 (+0.77%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 17.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 77/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510077
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B
Cash (14)Whales (17)SEC (15)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.6% Base Target
$310 Bull$263 Base$199 Bear
📬 FREE THG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for THG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (77/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY THG SCORES 77/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (56.2) create a -6 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$222.44+4.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
72
Grade B$231.97+1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
74
Grade B+$235.84+2.7% Next Q
Current
77
Grade B+$242.09+7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (69) → B+ (77)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the THG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 77/100 (B+) score, THG faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($226.79) or 200D SMA ($200.83) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($262.79) toward Bear Floor ($198.51).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $THG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “THG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
56.230 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE99% OF RANGE
L: $167$242.09H: $243
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: A-RQD 34 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on THG

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (70)

9.1% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 14.30% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (80)

34/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like THG
  • ✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (THG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
THG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +32.09%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $233.3H $242.1L $233.3C $242.1VOL 383.1K
RES: $243.0SUP: $211.0SMA50: $226.8SMA200: $200.8
$247.2$227.9$208.7$189.5$170.3RES $243.0SUP $211.0$242.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

THG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on THG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for THG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for THG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (THG)

Financials Rank #18 of 1096 ⚔️ KNSL vs THG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (THG vs. KNSL, AXS, ORI, ESNT)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) ranks #18 by composite RQD confidence (77/100, grade B+) and #213 by equity capitalization ($8.19B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AXS leads on earnings valuation at 7.3x trailing P/E, while KNSL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.8% ROIC and — gross margin. THG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 77/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
THG ACTIVE
Hanover Insurance Group Inc
B+ 77/100 12.4x — 9.1% +2.96% $8.19B Benchmark Subject
KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group Inc.
B+ 76/100 16.2x — 13.8% +0.76% $8.17B /knsl-vs-thg →
AXS
Axis Capital Holdings Limited
D 48/100 7.3x — 5.6% +1.97% $7.38B /axs-vs-thg →
ORI
Old Republic International Corporation
C- 60/100 9.9x — 7.3% +0.21% $9.28B /ori-vs-thg →
ESNT
Essent Group Ltd.
B+ 77/100 8.8x — 11.9% -0.86% $6.08B /esnt-vs-thg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000944695

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) reported GAAP revenue of $6.59B (+5.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.24B , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $662.5M, operating cash flow of $1.18B, and free cash flow of $1.17B (+47.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, THG closed FY2025 with $16.95B in total assets against $6.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $6.59B $662.5M $1.18B $1.17B $16.95B $6.02B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $6.24B $426.0M $806.4M $796.2M $15.27B $5.59B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $5.99B $35.3M $361.7M $92.0M $7.19B $1.68B

3. THG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is THG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Hanover Insurance Group Inc (NYSE: THG) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $242.09 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $8.19B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, THG ranks #18 in composite RQD confidence.

How does THG compare to KNSL and AXS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), THG carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, KNSL (Kinsale Capital Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $8.17B) and AXS (Axis Capital Holdings Limited) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 7.3x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $7.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AXS leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while KNSL leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for THG?

Per THG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000944695), Hanover Insurance Group Inc generated $6.59B in revenue (+5.7% YoY), $662.5M in net income, and $1.17B in free cash flow against $16.95B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is THG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

THG last traded at $242.09 (+2.96% on volume of 431,313 shares), positioning the stock +6.75% above its 50-day simple moving average ($226.79) and +20.54% above its 200-day simple moving average ($200.83). Across its 52-week range of $166.54 to $242.54, THG sits at the 99.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($232.89 to $251.29).

THG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell THG stock right now?

Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy — BUY) with 77/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is THG's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

THG's 12-month base price target is $262.79 (range $198.51 to $310.09), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 77/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

THG — Hanover Insurance Group Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:41Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, THG scores 77 out of 100, a B+ grade, labeled "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 (ROIC 9.1%; FCF yield 14.3%), Whale 13F Flow at 17/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 17/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 14/20 (Beta 1.01; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the strongest pillars are the two smart-money measures (17/20 each), which indicate that institutional and insider activity is currently read as net positive. The cash-generation pillar is solid but less dominant at 14/20, and the macro pillar at 14/20 reflects a beta near market levels, meaning the stock is unlikely to diverge sharply from broad market moves on the rating's inputs. The forensic balance sheet score of 15/20 points to a healthy Piotroski reading and moderate leverage. The RQD framework is an analytical summary and does not constitute a recommendation; upside drivers implied by the scores include continued institutional accumulation and cash conversion, while valuation tradeoffs are reflected in the 14.3% FCF yield set against a 13.5x EV/EBITDA multiple and a stock trading near the top of its 52-week range.

Snapshot

MetricValue
Price235.12
Market Cap$8.19B
P/E (TTM)12.4
Forward P/E11.5
EV/EBITDA13.5
EPS (TTM)19.03
Dividend Yield1.6%
Beta1.01
52-Wk Range$166.54 - $242.54
ROIC %9.1%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$6594.4M$933.0M$662.5MN/A$1170.4M$1122.7M$6018.5M
FY 2024$6237.4M$650.1M$426.0MN/A$796.2M$435.5M$5594.7M
FY 2023$5993.5M$105.6M$35.3MN/A$92.0MN/A$1683.0M

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $35.3M in FY 2023 to $662.5M in FY 2025, and operating income from $105.6M to $933.0M over the same span. Per the market data, operating margin is 14.1%, net margin is 10%, and ROIC is 9.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Reported debt rose from $1683.0M in FY 2023 to $6018.5M in FY 2025, a pattern worth monitoring alongside the improving cash position.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • CATALYST (GREEN): Investing.com reported a price target raise by Citizens on strong Q3 results.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Yahoo Finance reported on whether THG is undervalued at current levels.
  • RISK WATCH (RED): TradingView reported a 12-month price target cut to $237, implying 8% upside.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Yahoo Finance reported that the stock looks stretched after a 115% run.
  • RISK WATCH (RED): Seeking Alpha characterized the company as showing strong execution but limited upside at current levels.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Yahoo Finance reported the stock hit a fresh high and asked whether there is still room to run.

The news flow is mixed: one green catalyst (a target raise), two red risk-watch items centered on limited upside and a target cut, and three yellow market-wire items focused on valuation and momentum. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price-target distribution, given that the analyst data is not provided?
  • Which specific institutional holders, insider transactions, and Congressional trades underlie the 17/20 smart-money scores?
  • What drove the increase in reported debt from $1683.0M (FY 2023) to $6018.5M (FY 2025), and how is it being serviced?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A across all periods, and how does it reconcile with the EPS (TTM) of 19.03?
  • What is the company's business mix, revenue drivers, and key underwriting or catastrophe exposures?

THG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to THG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

THG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $242.09?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON THG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on THG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $277.44 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is THG (B+ • RQD 77/100) a Buy at $235.12?

Welcome to the THG (Hanover Insurance Group Inc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 77/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Property-Casualty Insurers. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $176.34 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $235.12

Pump the brakes on THG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on THG, but look at what you are paying: 12.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Hanover Insurance Group Inc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $289.20 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $235.12

THG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on THG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Property-Casualty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $235.12 (52-wk range $166.54 - $242.54), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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