Stock Ratings / Utilities / NRG / options

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NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$96.06 -1.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $95.61

NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $20.50B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $96.06 (-1.52% 1D, market cap $20.50B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, NRG ranks #67 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NRG compare to BEP and EIX in the Utilities sector?

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Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), NRG carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, BEP (Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $19.75B) and EIX (Edison International) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 5.1x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $22.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EIX leads on earnings multiple (5.1x) while NRG leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NRG?

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Per NRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001013871), NRG Energy Inc. generated $30.35B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $864.0M in net income, and $766.0M in free cash flow against $29.14B in total assets and $16.41B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $95.62 (-0.46%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 2.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NRG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NRG SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.00 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.3) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$107.18-8.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$97.84-2.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$95.27+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$96.06-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NRG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NRG currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($103.96) and Max Pain ($100.86) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $199.46.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NRG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NRG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±8.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NRG)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NRG.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NRG)

✓Walkthrough of NRG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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NRG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -37.95%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $96.97H $97.54L $96.06C $96.06VOL 2.90M

RES: $101.3SUP: $81.88SMA50: $104.0SMA200: $134.7

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NRG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NRG Butterfly Map → + Track NRG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

17.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NRG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NRG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NRG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NRG)

Utilities Rank #67 of 117 ⚔️ BEP vs NRG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (NRG vs. BEP, EIX, TLN, ES)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) ranks #67 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #32 by equity capitalization ($20.50B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EIX leads on earnings valuation at 5.1x trailing P/E, while NRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.9% ROIC and — gross margin. BEP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with NRG at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NRG ACTIVE NRG Energy Inc.	D	48/100	23.7x	—	10.9%	-1.52%	$20.50B	Benchmark Subject
BEP Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.	D+	57/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.34%	$19.75B	/bep-vs-nrg →
EIX Edison International	D-	38/100	5.1x	—	10.5%	-0.99%	$22.85B	/eix-vs-nrg →
TLN Talen Energy Corporation	D-	41/100	—	—	-1.0%	-1.64%	$16.71B	/tln-vs-nrg →
ES Eversource Energy (D/B/A)	D	46/100	11.0x	—	5.5%	+0.96%	$25.58B	/es-vs-nrg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001013871

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) reported GAAP revenue of $30.35B (+9.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $27.75B , and +7.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $864.0M, operating cash flow of $1.91B, and free cash flow of $766.0M (-58.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, NRG closed FY2025 with $29.14B in total assets against $16.41B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.00, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$30.35B	$864.0M	$1.91B	$766.0M	$29.14B	$16.41B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$27.75B	$1.13B	$2.31B	$1.83B	$24.02B	$9.81B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$28.26B	-$202.0M	-$221.0M	-$1.49B	$33.91B	$7.93B

3. NRG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NRG compare to BEP and EIX in the Utilities sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NRG?

Where is NRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NRG last traded at $96.06 (-1.52% on volume of 2,188,999 shares), positioning the stock -7.60% below its 50-day simple moving average ($103.96) and -28.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($134.74). Across its 52-week range of $90.80 to $189.96, NRG sits at the 5.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($87.89 to $104.23).

NRG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is NRG's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for NRG.

Direct Sub-Reports: NRG RQD Cockpit NRG 12M Forecast NRG Earnings & Move NRG Dividends & DRIP NRG Insiders & 13F NRG Whale Options NRG Profit Sankey NRG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NRG — NRG Energy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:13:38Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NRG scores 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 10.9% and an FCF yield of 3.74%. Both are present in the source but moderate, and the pillar sits below the midpoint.
Whale 13F Flow: 7 / 20. The rating cites institutional accumulation and options positioning as the basis. The pillar is weak, and the source data supplies no 13F holder detail to verify it (see the Analyst View section).
Insider Conviction: 15 / 20. The rating cites SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the strongest pillar, though the underlying trade records are not present in the source data.
Macro Regime Fit: 3 / 20. The rating cites beta of 0.67 and sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar and the main drag on the overall score.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 12 / 20. The rating cites Altman Z-Score of 2, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 8.5. The Piotroski reading is solid, while the Altman and leverage readings signal balance-sheet strain.

For a prospective investor, the score points to a stock the framework views as underperforming, with its clearest weakness in macro regime fit and its clearest support in insider conviction. The sub-50 overall score and the "Distribution Warning" label indicate the framework does not see a favorable risk-reward setup at current levels. Valuation context from the market data (P/E of 23.7 TTM versus a forward P/E of 22) shows earnings expected to rise, but the trailing EPS of 4.11 sits against a share price that has traded between $90.8 and $189.96 over the past 52 weeks, a wide range that highlights volatility and the depth of the recent drawdown.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
$97.54	$20.5B	23.7	22	11.4	4.11	2%	0.67	$90.8 - $189.96	10.9%

Business

NRG Energy Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Utilities sector, Electric Utilities: Central industry, per the profile section. The source data does not describe its products, customer base, or revenue mix. Revenue of $30347.0M for FY 2025 is reported in the SEC financials, but the mechanics of how it is generated are not available in source data.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$30347.0M	$1845.0M	$864.0M	N/A	$766.0M	$4708.0M	$16412.0M
FY 2024	$27748.0M	$2424.0M	$1125.0M	N/A	$1834.0M	$966.0M	$9812.0M
FY 2023	$28256.0M	$384.0M	$-202.0M	N/A	$-1492.5M	N/A	$7934.3M

Per the SEC financials, net income moved from $-202.0M in FY 2023 to $1125.0M in FY 2024 before easing to $864.0M in FY 2025, while debt rose from $7934.3M to $16412.0M across the same span. Per the market data, the operating margin is 6.1%, the net margin is 2.8%, and the gross margin is reported as 0%. ROIC is 10.9%. The Altman Z-Score is 2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, both per the RQD rating. A Debt/Equity reading of 8.5 is also cited in the rating, indicating heavy leverage. Taken together, profitability has been positive over the two most recent periods, but the rising debt load is the central balance-sheet concern.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Raymond James price target cut (RISK WATCH, RED): Per the news wire, the firm cut its NRG price target on Texas headwinds. This is the most direct negative catalyst in the feed.
TradingView price target item (RISK WATCH, RED): A 12-month price target of $183.69 is cited, described as implying 88% upside. This target sits well above the current price of $97.54 and conflicts with the Raymond James cut.
MarketWatch outperformance report (CATALYST, GREEN): Per the news wire, NRG outperformed competitors on a strong trading day. This is a short-term positive signal.
MarketWatch underperformance report (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): Per the news wire, NRG underperformed competitors on a Monday session. The two MarketWatch items point in opposite directions.
Yahoo Finance items (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): Two general market reports cover trading action and trending-stock context, with no specific fundamental detail.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What drove the Raymond James price target cut on Texas headwinds, and how large is NRG's exposure to that market?
What explains the gap between the 52-week high of $189.96 and the current price of $97.54, and what caused the decline?
How is the rise in debt from $7934.3M to $16412.0M being financed, and what is the implied interest burden?
Why are EPS figures marked N/A across all three reported periods, and what is the per-share earnings trend?
What is the basis for the 88% upside implied by the $183.69 price target, given the analyst data is absent from the sources?

NRG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NRG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 7h ago

NRG Energy (NRG) Stock Slides as Market Rises: Facts to Know Before You Trade

Yahoo Finance report covering NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Investing.com • 10h ago

Raymond James cuts NRG Energy stock price target on Texas headwinds

Investing.com report covering NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST MarketWatch • 13h ago

NRG Energy Inc. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day

MarketWatch report covering NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 16h ago

NRG Energy, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $183.69, Implies 88% Upside

TradingView report covering NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 19h ago

Here is What to Know Beyond Why NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) is a Trending Stock

Yahoo Finance report covering NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketWatch • 22h ago

NRG Energy Inc. stock underperforms Monday when compared to competitors

MarketWatch report covering NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

HSBC initiates NRG Energy stock coverage with buy rating on growth

Investing.com report covering NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

NRG Energy (NRG) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights

Yahoo Finance report covering NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NRG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $96.06?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NRG 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $105.34 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NRG (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $97.54?

Welcome to the NRG (NRG Energy Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Electric Utilities: Central. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $75.11 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $97.54

Pump the brakes on NRG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NRG, but look at what you are paying: 23.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless NRG Energy Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $118.02 (+21.0%)

Spot @ $97.54

NRG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NRG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electric Utilities: Central and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $97.54 (52-wk range $90.80 - $189.96), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.