MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

MTG scores 75 of 100, a letter grade of B, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental cash engine: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 13.2% and an FCF yield of 14.39%. For a prospective investor, this is the strongest evidence of cash generation in the rating, since the free cash flow yield is high relative to the market capitalization.
• Whale 13F flow: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying 13F and options detail is not itemized in the source data, so the score cannot be traced to specific holdings.
• Insider conviction: 18 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this is the highest pillar, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The individual transactions are not itemized in the source data, so investors should treat the score as a summary, not a verified trade log.
• Macro regime fit: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 1.14 and sector sensitivity. A beta above 1.0 implies the stock has historically moved more than the broad market, which means larger drawdowns in risk-off periods alongside potential upside in risk-on periods.
• Forensic balance sheet: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. These metrics point to a financially sound balance sheet, though the Z-score is a model output and not a guarantee of solvency.

Taken together, the pillar profile suggests the rating is driven most by cash generation and insider activity, with institutional flow and macro sensitivity contributing less. The valuation multiples (P/E 8, Forward P/E 7.4) are low in absolute terms, so the upside case rests on whether current earnings and cash flow persist. The tradeoff is that a low multiple can also reflect market skepticism about durability. This is an analytical framing, not a recommendation.

MGIC Investment Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, within the Property-Casualty Insurers industry, and profile. The profile describes the company as a Financials issuer operating in Property-Casualty Insurers with a market capitalization of $5.9B.

Revenue rose from $1.16B in FY 2023 to $1.21B in FY 2025, while net income moved from $712.9M to $763.0M in FY 2024 and then $738.3M in FY 2025. Market data reports an operating margin of 74.2% and a net margin of 60.8%. Per the market data, ROIC is 13.2%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9. Debt fell from $761.6M in FY 2023 to $671.4M in FY 2025, and cash rose to $369.0M in FY 2025.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Per the RQD rating, the stock trades at a P/E of 8 with an FCF yield of 14.39% and ROIC of 13.2%, with insider conviction scored 18/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 (ROIC 13.2%, FCF yield 14.39%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $24.69 – $31.89 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Per the news feed, a price target was cut to $30.33 and a headline flags 80% margins on falling revenue, while the beta of 1.14 implies above-market volatility. Investors must weigh 8.0x trailing P/E and 6.8x EV/EBITDA against 74.2% operating margins and a 1.14 macro beta if sector demand softens.

Sector correlations and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the source data. The only sector-level context is that the issuer sits in Financials / Property-Casualty Insurers,.

• Key Question #1: What is the EPS for FY 2023 through FY 2025, since the financials report EPS as N/A?
• Key Question #2: What is the cash balance for FY 2023, and what drove the rise in cash to $369.0M in FY 2025?
• Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTG's — gross margin and 7.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials demand cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.14)?