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Stock Ratings / Industrials / MSM / forecast
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MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$121.02 -1.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $120.97

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (41% profit margin, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $6.76B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MSM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MSM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (NYSE: MSM) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $121.02 (-1.55% 1D, market cap $6.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MSM ranks #18 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MSM compare to ZWS and RAL in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), MSM carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.4x, gross margin of 40.8%, and ROIC of 13.2%. By comparison, ZWS (Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 37.3x, ROIC 12.3%, cap $7.40B) and RAL (Ralliant Corporation) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGCO leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while MSM leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSM?
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Per MSM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30, CIK 0001003078), MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. generated $3.77B in revenue (-1.3% YoY), $199.3M in net income, and $240.9M in free cash flow against $2.49B in total assets and $496.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (41% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $120.97 (-0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 6.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510075
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+
Cash (16)Whales (12)SEC (18)Macro (14)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.7% Base Target
$154 Bull$130 Base$99 Bear
📬 FREE MSM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MSM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MSM SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.14 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.4% FCF Margin ($240.9M FCF) & 40.8% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
83
Grade A$132.58+0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
80
Grade A-$132.82-7.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
78
Grade A-$122.59-1.3% Next Q
Current
75
Grade B$121.02+7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A (83) → B (75)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MSM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, MSM faces multiple-compression risk if 34.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 38.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($123.38) or 200D SMA ($109.95) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($130.28) toward Bear Floor ($99.24).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MSM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MSM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MSM Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $121.02: 82.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $99.24
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $130.28
$10,765
+$765 (+7.7%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $153.73
$12,703
+$2,703 (+27.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$13574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadSTRONG BUY$14569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$11558%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MSM Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MSM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.58%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $122.9H $122.9L $121.0C $121.0VOL 742.0K
RES: $134.6SUP: $110.7SMA50: $123.4SMA200: $110.0
$137.1$124.1$111.2$98.26$85.33RES $134.6SUP $110.7$121.02026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MSM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MSM Butterfly Map → + Track MSM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
26.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MSM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MSM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MSM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MSM)

Industrials Rank #18 of 485 ⚔️ ZWS vs MSM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MSM vs. ZWS, RAL, GTES, AGCO)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) ranks #18 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #122 by equity capitalization ($6.76B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGCO leads on earnings valuation at 10.4x trailing P/E, while MSM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.2% ROIC and 40.8% gross margin. MSM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MSM ACTIVE
MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc.
B 75/100 34.4x 40.8% 13.2% -1.55% $6.76B Benchmark Subject
ZWS
Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation
C- 61/100 37.3x 45.1% 12.3% +0.16% $7.40B /zws-vs-msm →
RAL
Ralliant Corporation
D 49/100 — 50.3% -35.0% -4.71% $7.44B /ral-vs-msm →
GTES
Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd.
D+ 57/100 26.4x 39.8% 7.8% -9.22% $6.03B /gtes-vs-msm →
AGCO
AGCO Corporation
C- 60/100 10.4x 25.5% 8.2% +2.85% $7.65B /agco-vs-msm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-08-30 • CIK 0001003078

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30), MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) reported GAAP revenue of $3.77B (-1.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.82B , and -6.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $199.3M, operating cash flow of $333.7M, and free cash flow of $240.9M (-22.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MSM closed FY2025 with $2.49B in total assets against $496.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.14, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-08-30 $3.77B $199.3M $333.7M $240.9M $2.49B $496.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-08-31 $3.82B $258.6M $410.7M $311.3M $2.47B $490.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-02 $4.01B $343.2M $699.6M $519.2M $4.81B $1.13B

3. MSM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MSM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (NYSE: MSM) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $121.02 (-1.55% 1D, market cap $6.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MSM ranks #18 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MSM compare to ZWS and RAL in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), MSM carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.4x, gross margin of 40.8%, and ROIC of 13.2%. By comparison, ZWS (Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 37.3x, ROIC 12.3%, cap $7.40B) and RAL (Ralliant Corporation) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGCO leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while MSM leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSM?

Per MSM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30, CIK 0001003078), MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. generated $3.77B in revenue (-1.3% YoY), $199.3M in net income, and $240.9M in free cash flow against $2.49B in total assets and $496.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (41% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MSM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MSM last traded at $121.02 (-1.55% on volume of 742,010 shares), positioning the stock -1.91% below its 50-day simple moving average ($123.38) and +10.07% above its 200-day simple moving average ($109.95). Across its 52-week range of $78.80 to $133.95, MSM sits at the 76.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($113.52 to $128.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: MSM RQD Cockpit MSM 12M Forecast MSM Earnings & Move MSM Dividends & DRIP MSM Insiders & 13F MSM Whale Options MSM Profit Sankey MSM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MSM — MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:18:46Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MSM scores 75 out of 100, a letter grade of B, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 13.2% and an FCF yield of 3.51%. For an investor, this is the core earnings-quality argument: the business generates returns above a typical cost of capital on invested money, but the free-cash yield at the current price is modest, meaning valuation is already pricing in much of that cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. It is the weakest-scoring pillar apart from macro, suggesting institutional conviction is present but not a dominant driver.
  • Insider Conviction: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A moderately positive insider signal supports the thesis without being a strong standalone catalyst.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.05 and the score reflects sector sensitivity. For a prospective investor, this implies the stock will roughly track broad market moves, with no special defensive or cyclical insulation indicated.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 6.14, Piotroski F is 7 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.34. This is the strongest pillar and signals low solvency and accounting risk.

Investor implications: The upside case rests on the balance sheet strength and the cash-return profile, with the stock trading near the upper end of its 52-week range ($78.8 – $133.95) at $122.92. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the P/E (TTM) of 34.4 and EV/EBITDA of 19.2, which are elevated relative to the modest 3.51% FCF yield. Investors weighing the Buy label should recognize that the grade reflects quality and balance-sheet resilience more than a valuation discount.

Business

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Industrial Machinery/Components industry. The profile identifies the company as an industrial distributor with a $6.9B market capitalization. Gross margin is 40.8%, operating margin 8%, and net margin 5.3%, per the market data. Customer segments and the specific product and revenue model are —

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the headlines are a Q4 earnings metrics comparison versus estimates (Yahoo Finance), a price history report (Barchart.com), an all-time high at 133.71 USD (Investing.com), general stock forecasts (Yahoo Finance), a momentum-stock list (The Globe and Mail), and an insider trading activity report for 2026 (MarketBeat). All six items are tagged YELLOW. The all-time-high headline is the most notable price event, indicating the stock reached 133.71 USD intraday, above the 52-week high of $133.95 noted in market data only as a range boundary. Risk watch items: the news summaries do not disclose specific earnings figures, so the Q4 comparison to estimates is — The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlations beyond the Industrials / Industrial Machinery/Components classification are — Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means 2nd-order ripple effects cannot be assessed from these sources.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst consensus, price targets, and holder data: —

Open Questions

  • What were the actual Q4 results versus consensus estimates, and what drove the guidance?
  • What are the revenue drivers behind the three-year decline from $4.01B to $3.77B?
  • What are the specific insider and 13F transactions behind the 15/20 insider and 12/20 whale pillar scores?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A across all filed periods, and what is the EPS trajectory?
  • Which upstream suppliers and downstream customers drive exposure, given the empty supply-chain graph?

MSM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MSM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MSM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $121.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MSM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MSM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $140.38 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 6.14, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.34) with ROIC of 13.2%, supporting a Roarable Buy grade

Picked up a starter position in MSM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $121.02. Forensic balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 6.14, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.34) with ROIC of 13.2%, supporting a Roarable Buy grade of 75.. Trading inside a $78.80–$133.95 52-week range with 3.51% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Industrial Machinery/Components multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MSM's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $99.24 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $121.02

Revenue, operating income, net income, and FCF have all declined across FY 2023–FY 2025 while the stock trades at 34.4x TTM earnings an

Fading this rally in MSM at $121.02. Revenue, operating income, net income, and FCF have all declined across FY 2023–FY 2025 while the stock trades at 34.4x TTM earnings and 19.2x EV/EBITDA.. With a beta of 1.05 and the stock sitting at $121.02 (52-wk range $78.80–$133.95), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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