How profitable is MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), MSM converted $3.8B of revenue into a 40.8% gross margin, 8% operating margin, and $240.9M in free cash flow (6.4% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Industrials / MSM / financials

ZWS (61) RAL (49) GTES (57) AGCO (60) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$119.62 -1.16% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.66

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (40.8% gross margin, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $6.76B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MSM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MSM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (NYSE: MSM) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $119.62 (-1.16% 1D, market cap $6.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, MSM ranks #19 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MSM compare to ZWS and RAL in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), MSM carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.4x, gross margin of 40.8%, and ROIC of 13.2%. By comparison, ZWS (Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 37.3x, ROIC 12.3%, cap $7.40B) and RAL (Ralliant Corporation) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGCO leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while MSM leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSM?

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Per MSM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30, CIK 0001003078), MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. generated $3.77B in revenue (-1.3% YoY), $199.3M in net income, and $240.9M in free cash flow against $2.49B in total assets and $496.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (40.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.66 (+0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 6.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MSM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MSM SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.14 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.4% FCF Margin ($240.9M FCF) & 40.8% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A$132.58+0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade A-$132.82-7.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade A-$122.59-2.4% Next Q

Current

Grade B$119.62+7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A (83) → B (75)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MSM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, MSM faces multiple-compression risk if 34.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 38.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($123.38) or 200D SMA ($109.95) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($128.77) toward Bear Floor ($98.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MSM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MSM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MSM Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$240.9M (6.4% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.01B

FY24

Rev $3.82B

FY25

Rev $3.77B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$3.77B	40.8%	8%	$199.3M	$240.9M	13%
FY 2024	$3.82B	41.2%	10.2%	$258.6M	$311.3M	17.1%
FY 2023	$4.01B	40.8%	12.1%	$343.2M	$519.2M	13.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MSM)

✓Walkthrough of MSM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MSM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.20%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $122.9H $122.9L $119.6C $119.6VOL 742.0K

RES: $134.6SUP: $110.7SMA50: $123.4SMA200: $110.0

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MSM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MSM Butterfly Map → + Track MSM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

26.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MSM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MSM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MSM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MSM)

Industrials Rank #19 of 486 ⚔️ ZWS vs MSM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MSM vs. ZWS, RAL, GTES, AGCO)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) ranks #19 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #123 by equity capitalization ($6.76B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGCO leads on earnings valuation at 10.4x trailing P/E, while MSM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.2% ROIC and 40.8% gross margin. MSM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MSM ACTIVE MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc.	B	75/100	34.4x	40.8%	13.2%	-1.16%	$6.76B	Benchmark Subject
ZWS Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation	C-	61/100	37.3x	45.1%	12.3%	-0.29%	$7.40B	/zws-vs-msm →
RAL Ralliant Corporation	D	49/100	—	50.3%	-35.0%	-1.34%	$7.44B	/ral-vs-msm →
GTES Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd.	D+	57/100	26.4x	39.8%	7.8%	+0.76%	$6.03B	/gtes-vs-msm →
AGCO AGCO Corporation	C-	60/100	10.4x	25.5%	8.2%	+2.26%	$7.65B	/agco-vs-msm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-08-30 • CIK 0001003078 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30), MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) reported GAAP revenue of $3.77B (-1.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.82B , and -6.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $199.3M, operating cash flow of $333.7M, and free cash flow of $240.9M (-22.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MSM closed FY2025 with $2.49B in total assets against $496.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.14, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-08-30	$3.77B	$199.3M	$333.7M	$240.9M	$2.49B	$496.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-08-31	$3.82B	$258.6M	$410.7M	$311.3M	$2.47B	$490.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-02	$4.01B	$343.2M	$699.6M	$519.2M	$4.81B	$1.13B

3. MSM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MSM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MSM compare to ZWS and RAL in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSM?

Where is MSM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MSM last traded at $119.62 (-1.16% on volume of 707,039 shares), positioning the stock -3.05% below its 50-day simple moving average ($123.38) and +8.79% above its 200-day simple moving average ($109.95). Across its 52-week range of $78.80 to $133.95, MSM sits at the 74.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($112.20 to $127.04).

Direct Sub-Reports: MSM RQD Cockpit MSM 12M Forecast MSM Earnings & Move MSM Dividends & DRIP MSM Insiders & 13F MSM Whale Options MSM Profit Sankey MSM News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MSM — MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-08-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 75/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $119.62 (-1.16% 1D, market capitalization $6.76B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.2%, gross margin of 40.8%, operating margin of 8.0%, and free cash flow yield of 3.51%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.14, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.34x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Industrial Machinery/Components industry. The profile identifies the company as an industrial distributor with a $6.9B market capitalization. Gross margin is 40.8%, operating margin 8%, and net margin 5.3%, per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-08-30), MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) reported $3.77B in annual revenue (up from $3.82B in FY2024, -1.3% YoY) and $199.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.01B revenue, $343.2M net income) through FY2025, MSM scaled operating cash flow to $333.7M and free cash flow to $240.9M, backed by $2.49B in total assets against $496.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 75/100): Strong cash generator (40.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $78.80 – $133.95 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 34.4x trailing P/E and 19.2x EV/EBITDA against 8.0% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlations beyond the Industrials / Industrial Machinery/Components classification are — Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means 2nd-order ripple effects cannot be assessed from these sources.

Key Question #1: Can MSM sustain or expand its 8.0% operating margin and 13.2% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.77B and free cash flow of $240.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $496.9M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is MSM's 32.0x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

MSM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MSM Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

MSC Industrial (MSM) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Barchart.com • 1d ago

MSM Price History for Msc Industrial Direct Company Stock

Barchart.com report covering MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Msc Industrial Direct stock hits all-time high at 133.71 USD

Investing.com report covering MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

MSC Industrial Direct Company, (MSM) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo Finance report covering MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Best Momentum Stocks to Buy for October 26th

The Globe and Mail report covering MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Insider Trading Activity 2026

MarketBeat report covering MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 1d ago

Responsive Playbooks and the MSM Inflection

Stock Traders Daily report covering MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Best Income Stocks to Buy for October 26th

Yahoo Finance report covering MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MSM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $119.62?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MSM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $140.38 (+16.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 6.14, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.34) with ROIC of 13.2%, supporting a Roarable Buy grade

Picked up a starter position in MSM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $121.02. Forensic balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 6.14, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.34) with ROIC of 13.2%, supporting a Roarable Buy grade of 75.. Trading inside a $78.80–$133.95 52-week range with 3.51% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Industrial Machinery/Components multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MSM's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $99.24 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $121.02

Revenue, operating income, net income, and FCF have all declined across FY 2023–FY 2025 while the stock trades at 34.4x TTM earnings an

Fading this rally in MSM at $121.02. Revenue, operating income, net income, and FCF have all declined across FY 2023–FY 2025 while the stock trades at 34.4x TTM earnings and 19.2x EV/EBITDA.. With a beta of 1.05 and the stock sitting at $121.02 (52-wk range $78.80–$133.95), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.