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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / APG / options
ROL (72) ALLE (79) AER (69) SUNB (76) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

APi Group Corporation (APG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$44.34 -1.51% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.14

APi Group Corporation (APG) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) β†’
ROARABLE C β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $18.86B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on APG Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is APG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, APi Group Corporation (NYSE: APG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $44.34 (-1.51% 1D, market cap $18.86B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, APG ranks #243 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does APG compare to ROL and ALLE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), APG carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 64.4x, gross margin of 31.4%, and ROIC of 8.3%. By comparison, ROL (Rollins Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 31.5x, ROIC 28.5%, cap $16.57B) and ALLE (Allegion plc) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 24.5x, ROIC 18.4%, cap $15.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AER leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while ROL leads on capital efficiency (28.5% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APG?
β–Ό

Per APG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001796209), APi Group Corporation generated $7.91B in revenue (+12.7% YoY), $302.0M in net income, and $663.0M in free cash flow against $8.94B in total assets and $2.75B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.14 (-0.46%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 8.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 55.2% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C
025507510064
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C Β· Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (14)SEC (16)Macro (9)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$54 Bull$46 Base$36 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE APG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for APG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY APG SCORES 64/100 (C) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.43 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.4% FCF Margin ($663.0M FCF) & 31.4% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (67) create a -11 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$40.02+0.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$40.21+2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$41.34+7.3% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$44.34+1.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (56) β†’ C (64)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the APG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, APG faces multiple-compression risk if 64.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 64x earningsβ€”high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.86) or 200D SMA ($41.98) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($45.54) toward Bear Floor ($35.52).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $APGβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAPG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±7.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (APG)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for APG.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating APG & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on APG
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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APG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.74%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $45.02H $45.02L $44.34C $44.34VOL 4.00M
RES: $45.14SUP: $33.15SMA50: $39.86SMA200: $41.98
$47.56$44.31$41.06$37.81$34.56RES $45.14SUP $33.15$44.342026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

APG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ APG Butterfly Map β†’ + Track APG β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
43.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on APG today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for APG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for APG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (APG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #243 of 1011 βš”οΈ ROL vs APG Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (APG vs. ROL, ALLE, AER, SUNB)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, APi Group Corporation (APG) ranks #243 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #102 by equity capitalization ($18.86B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AER leads on earnings valuation at 6.6x trailing P/E, while ROL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.5% ROIC and β€” gross margin. ALLE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with APG at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
APG ACTIVE
APi Group Corporation
C 64/100 64.4x 31.4% 8.3% -1.51% $18.86B Benchmark Subject
ROL
Rollins Inc.
B 72/100 31.5x β€” 28.5% -0.09% $16.57B /rol-vs-apg β†’
ALLE
Allegion plc
B+ 79/100 24.5x 45.2% 18.4% -0.33% $15.72B /alle-vs-apg β†’
AER
AerCap Holdings N.V.
C+ 69/100 6.6x β€” 9.2% -0.74% $24.48B /aer-vs-apg β†’
SUNB
Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc.
B+ 76/100 β€” 96.0% 11.7% -0.82% $34.27B /sunb-vs-apg β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001796209

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), APi Group Corporation (APG) reported GAAP revenue of $7.91B (+12.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.02B , and +14.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $302.0M, operating cash flow of $759.0M, and free cash flow of $663.0M (+23.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, APG closed FY2025 with $8.94B in total assets against $2.75B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.43, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $7.91B $302.0M $759.0M $663.0M $8.94B $2.75B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.02B $250.0M $620.0M $536.0M $8.15B $2.75B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $6.93B $153.0M $514.0M $202.2M $10.70B $2.50B

3. APG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is APG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, APi Group Corporation (NYSE: APG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $44.34 (-1.51% 1D, market cap $18.86B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, APG ranks #243 in composite RQD confidence.

How does APG compare to ROL and ALLE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), APG carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 64.4x, gross margin of 31.4%, and ROIC of 8.3%. By comparison, ROL (Rollins Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 31.5x, ROIC 28.5%, cap $16.57B) and ALLE (Allegion plc) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 24.5x, ROIC 18.4%, cap $15.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AER leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while ROL leads on capital efficiency (28.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APG?

Per APG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001796209), APi Group Corporation generated $7.91B in revenue (+12.7% YoY), $302.0M in net income, and $663.0M in free cash flow against $8.94B in total assets and $2.75B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is APG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

APG last traded at $44.34 (-1.51% on volume of 3,999,028 shares), positioning the stock +11.24% above its 50-day simple moving average ($39.86) and +5.62% above its 200-day simple moving average ($41.98). Across its 52-week range of $34.87 to $49.99, APG sits at the 62.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.1% ($41.19 to $47.49).

Direct Sub-Reports: APG RQD Cockpit APG 12M Forecast APG Earnings & Move APG Dividends & DRIP APG Insiders & 13F APG Whale Options APG Profit Sankey APG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 64/100 (C) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

APG β€” APi Group Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:13:47Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, APG scores 65 out of 100, a letter grade of C, labeled "Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 8.3% and an FCF yield of 3.41%. For a prospective investor, these figures indicate the business generates a modest return on invested capital and a moderate free-cash return relative to the current price.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 14 / 20. The RQD rating cites institutional accumulation and options positioning.
  • Insider Conviction: 11 / 20. The RQD rating cites SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The underlying transactions are not itemized in source data, so the investor cannot independently verify the direction or size of insider activity.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 1.06 and sector sensitivity. This is the lowest-scoring pillar, indicating the stock is expected to move roughly in line with the market and carries cyclical sensitivity without a clear defensive offset.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar is supported by an Altman Z-Score of 3.43, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.81. This is the strongest pillar and suggests balance sheet risk is comparatively contained.

Taken together, the investor implication is a balanced profile: solid balance-sheet forensics and a reasonable cash engine are offset by a weak macro-fit score and a valuation that the market data shows as elevated (P/E TTM of 64.4 and EV/EBITDA of 33.5). Upside depends on earnings growth catching up to the current multiple; the rating itself does not signal a directional call.

Business

APi Group Corporation (APG) is a NYSE-listed issuer.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's specific products, customers, and revenue segments, given that the profile does not describe them?
  • Why do reported EPS figures show N/A across all three periods while the market data shows EPS (TTM) of 0.7?
  • What is the named composition of the 13F institutional holders and the SEC Form 4 insider transactions underlying the pillar scores?
  • What catalysts or earnings events are expected that could justify a forward P/E of 54.1 relative to the trailing 64.4?
  • What is the FY 2023 cash balance, which the financials mark as N/A?

APG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for APi Group Corporation (APG) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to APG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟒 CATALYST Yahoo Finance β€’ 4d ago
What APi Group (APG) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

APi Group (NYSE:APG) reported record third-quarter results, with revenue rising 22.5% year over year to $2.55 billion and organic revenue growth of 15.7%, as demand remained strong across inspection, service, monitoring

Read Full Source β†—
🟑 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance β€’ 4d ago
APi: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

(AP) β€” APi Group Corporation (APG) on Thursday reported third-quarter earnings of $114 million.On a per-share basis, the New Brighton, Minnesota-based company said it had net income of 24 cents.

Read Full Source β†—
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

APG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $44.34?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON APG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on APG:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $51.43 (+16.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet scores 16 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and Altman Z-Score of 3.43, indicating contained balance-she

Picked up a starter position in APG in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $44.34. The forensic balance sheet scores 16 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and Altman Z-Score of 3.43, indicating contained balance-sheet risk.. Trading inside a $34.87–$49.99 52-week range with 3.41% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Diversified Commercial Services multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 14/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $44.34 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

FO ForensicBear 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $35.47 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $44.34

The stock carries a trailing P/E of 64.4 and EV/EBITDA of 33.5 while the macro regime fit pillar scores only 10 of 20 with beta of 1.06

Careful chasing APG at $44.34. The stock carries a trailing P/E of 64.4 and EV/EBITDA of 33.5 while the macro regime fit pillar scores only 10 of 20 with beta of 1.06.. Gross margin is 31.4%, but operating margin is 7.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $35.47 on multiple compression.

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