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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ALK / insiders
SKYW (56) CPA (54) AERO (45) ALGT (35) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$35.71 -1.22% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.56

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows β†’
ROARABLE D- β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $3.99B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALK Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $35.71 (-1.22% 1D, market cap $3.99B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALK ranks #697 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALK compare to SKYW and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ALK carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 40.3x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.9%. By comparison, SKYW (SkyWest Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $3.20B) and CPA (Copa Holdings S.A.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SKYW leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while SKYW leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALK?
β–Ό

Per ALK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000766421), Alaska Air Group Inc. generated $14.24B in revenue (+21.3% YoY), $100.0M in net income, and $608.2M in free cash flow against $20.36B in total assets and $4.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.56 (-0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) β€’ 4.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D-
025507510042
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk D-
Cash (10)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (5)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
$64 Bull$33 Base$26 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ALK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±8.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ALK SCORES 42/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.3% FCF Margin ($608.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (43.3) create a -15 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
50
Grade C-$35.73-6.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$33.54+6.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$35.58+0.4% Next Q
Current
42
Grade D-$35.71-7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (50) β†’ D- (42)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While ALK currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($38.77) and Max Pain ($37.50) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $63.66.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALKβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œALK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

ALK Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (ALK)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on ALK. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALK)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of ALK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ALK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.38%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $36.15H $36.15L $35.71C $35.71VOL 2.98M
RES: $52.02SUP: $30.79SMA50: $38.77SMA200: $43.82
$55.86$49.48$43.11$36.73$30.35RES $52.02SUP $30.79$35.712026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ ALK Butterfly Map β†’ + Track ALK β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
30.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALK today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #697 of 1011 βš”οΈ SKYW vs ALK Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ALK vs. SKYW, CPA, AERO, ALGT)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) ranks #697 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #312 by equity capitalization ($3.99B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SKYW leads on earnings valuation at 8.8x trailing P/E, while SKYW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.9% ROIC and β€” gross margin. SKYW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with ALK at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALK ACTIVE
Alaska Air Group Inc.
D- 42/100 40.3x β€” 2.9% -1.22% $3.99B Benchmark Subject
SKYW
SkyWest Inc.
D+ 56/100 8.8x β€” 10.9% -14.72% $3.20B /skyw-vs-alk β†’
CPA
Copa Holdings S.A.
D+ 54/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% -1.78% $5.30B /cpa-vs-alk β†’
AERO
Grupo Aeromexico S.A.B. de C.V. (each representing ten (10) )
D 45/100 β€” β€” β€” -1.71% $2.18B /aero-vs-alk β†’
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
D- 35/100 β€” β€” 1.1% -2.09% $1.95B /algt-vs-alk β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000766421

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) reported GAAP revenue of $14.24B (+21.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.73B , and +36.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $100.0M, operating cash flow of $1.25B, and free cash flow of $608.2M (-35.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALK closed FY2025 with $20.36B in total assets against $4.77B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.15, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $14.24B $100.0M $1.25B $608.2M $20.36B $4.77B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $11.73B $395.0M $1.46B $935.9M $19.77B $4.49B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $10.43B $235.0M $1.05B $580.8M $12.51B $2.93B

3. ALK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $35.71 (-1.22% 1D, market cap $3.99B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALK ranks #697 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALK compare to SKYW and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ALK carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 40.3x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.9%. By comparison, SKYW (SkyWest Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $3.20B) and CPA (Copa Holdings S.A.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SKYW leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while SKYW leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALK?

Per ALK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000766421), Alaska Air Group Inc. generated $14.24B in revenue (+21.3% YoY), $100.0M in net income, and $608.2M in free cash flow against $20.36B in total assets and $4.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALK last traded at $35.71 (-1.22% on volume of 2,980,930 shares), positioning the stock -7.89% below its 50-day simple moving average ($38.77) and -18.51% below its 200-day simple moving average ($43.82). Across its 52-week range of $32.33 to $60.63, ALK sits at the 11.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±8.9% ($32.53 to $38.89).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALK RQD Cockpit ALK 12M Forecast ALK Earnings & Move ALK Dividends & DRIP ALK Insiders & 13F ALK Whale Options ALK Profit Sankey ALK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 42/100 (D-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ALK β€” Alaska Air Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:22:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ALK scores 43 out of 100, earning a D- grade and the verdict "Roarable Sell β€” Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 2.9% and an FCF yield of 15.08%. A low ROIC relative to a high FCF yield signals that the company generates cash flow relative to its market value, but returns on invested capital remain thin. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on cash generation; the valuation tradeoff is that thin ROIC limits how much value each dollar of capital creates.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 6 / 20. The RQD rating cites institutional accumulation and options positioning as the basis for this score. The weak score indicates limited institutional conviction flowing into the name, which reduces one source of marginal buying support.
  • Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A mid-range score suggests mixed or modest insider signal rather than a strong directional endorsement.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. The RQD rating cites a beta of 0.92 and sector sensitivity. The low score indicates the stock's macro positioning is a headwind under the rating's framework; a beta near 1 means the shares move roughly with the broad market, so macro shocks transmit directly to the price.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z-Score of 1.15, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.16. An Altman Z-Score at this level sits in a zone the rating treats as financially stressed, and leverage is substantial. This is the central vulnerability a prospective investor should weigh against the cash-flow story.

Taken together, the rating frames ALK as a stock with cash-generation strengths offset by a leveraged balance sheet, weak institutional flow, and macro sensitivity. The upside driver is a sustained improvement in ROIC and deleveraging; the key valuation tradeoff is that the stock's P/E multiples are elevated relative to its thin margins.

Business

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) is a NYSE-listed company classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Air Freight/Delivery Services industry. The profile describes the company as a Consumer Discretionary issuer with a market capitalization of $4.0B. β€” for specific product lines, customer segments, or revenue model details.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per <recent_news_and_catalysts>, six items reference ALK:

  • Market-wire coverage (YELLOW): Yahoo! Finance Canada and GuruFocus items note market action and a 3.3% stock decline; the summaries are generic and do not specify causes.
  • Risk Watch (RED): A Yahoo Finance item is flagged RED as a risk-watch item; the summary is generic and does not specify the risk.
  • Catalyst (GREEN): A Yahoo Finance item is flagged GREEN as a catalyst; the summary is generic and does not specify the catalyst.
  • Q3 results headline (YELLOW): A Yahoo Finance headline states that Q3 results deepened fuel fears, indicating fuel cost as a stated concern in the headline.

Per <butterfly_supply_chain_graph>, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

β€” The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals for ALK. The only stated sector-level linkage is the Consumer Discretionary / Air Freight/Delivery Services classification, and the Q3 headline's reference to fuel fears is the one indirect cost-sensitivity signal in the source data.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

β€” Analyst data and holders data are both listed as NONE, so no consensus rating, price targets, 13F institutional holdings, SEC Form 4 insider trades, or Congressional trades are available.

Open Questions

  • What are ALK's EPS figures for FY 2023–FY 2025? The financials report EPS as N/A for all periods.
  • What drove the cash decline from $1.20B (FY 2024) to $627.0M (FY 2025), and what was the debt trajectory's funding source?
  • What is the specific fuel-cost exposure and hedging posture referenced in the Q3 results headline?
  • Which items in the news wire constitute the RED risk-watch and GREEN catalyst flags, since the summaries do not specify them?
  • What is the source of the discrepancy between the 52-week range and the current price relative to the reported P/E multiples?

ALK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ALK Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $35.71?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALK:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA Institutional Buy-Side πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $46.07 (+29.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Cash generation is strong relative to market value, with a 15.08% FCF yield and a 0.92 beta.

The street is overcomplicating Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK). Cash generation is strong relative to market value, with a 15.08% FCF yield and a 0.92 beta.. With an RQD score of 42/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $38.57.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 40.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Air Freight/Delivery Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $30.35 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $35.71

Leverage and distress signals dominate, with an Altman Z-Score of 1.15, Debt/Equity of 1.16, and a 2.9% ROIC.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ALK above $35.71. Leverage and distress signals dominate, with an Altman Z-Score of 1.15, Debt/Equity of 1.16, and a 2.9% ROIC.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (15.08%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $60.63.

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