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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / VAI / options
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Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$1.72 -19.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.66

Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $31.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VAI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Valor Energy Incorporated (NASDAQ: VAI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $1.72 (-19.25% 1D, market cap $31.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, VAI ranks #793 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VAI compare to MRT and HTZ in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Rental/Leasing Companies), VAI carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 13.6%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MRT (Marti Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $178.1M) and HTZ (Hertz Global Holdings Inc) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $684.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, R leads on earnings multiple (21.5x) while R leads on capital efficiency (5.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VAI?
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Per VAI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001711012), Valor Energy Incorporated generated $1.5M in revenue (-53.7% YoY), -$5.3M in net income, and -$1.6M in free cash flow against $5.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.66 (-3.65%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (10)SEC (5)Macro (9)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.5% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE VAI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VAI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VAI SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 43% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$2.61-3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$2.53-8.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$2.32-25.9% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$1.72-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VAI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VAI currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.19) and Max Pain ($1.81) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.06.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VAI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VAI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (VAI)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for VAI.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VAI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of VAI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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VAI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +47.01%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $2.16H $2.16L $1.72C $1.72VOL 14.2K
RES: $3.18SUP: $1.67SMA50: $2.19SMA200: $1.54
$3.05$2.46$1.86$1.26$0.66RES $3.18SUP $1.67$1.722026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VAI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VAI Butterfly Map → + Track VAI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -53.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VAI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VAI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VAI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VAI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #793 of 1009 ⚔️ MRT vs VAI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (VAI vs. MRT, HTZ, CAR, R)

Industry: Rental/Leasing Companies (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) ranks #793 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #854 by equity capitalization ($31.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, R leads on earnings valuation at 21.5x trailing P/E, while R leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.7% ROIC and — gross margin. R currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with VAI at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VAI ACTIVE
Valor Energy Incorporated
D- 35/100 — 13.6% -35.0% -19.25% $31.0M Benchmark Subject
MRT
Marti Technologies Inc. (Class A)
D- 41/100 — 61.1% -35.0% +1.45% $178.1M /mrt-vs-vai →
HTZ
Hertz Global Holdings Inc
D- 42/100 — — — +1.56% $684.4M /htz-vs-vai →
CAR
Avis Budget Group Inc.
D- 42/100 — — — +3.27% $3.81B /car-vs-vai →
R
Ryder System Inc.
C 62/100 21.5x — 5.7% +1.07% $10.80B /r-vs-vai →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001711012 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.5M (-53.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.3M , and -63.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$5.3M, operating cash flow of -$1.6M, and free cash flow of -$1.6M (-420.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, VAI closed FY2025 with $5.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-03-31 $1.5M -$5.3M -$1.6M -$1.6M $5.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2025-03-31 $3.3M -$3.7M $500.3K $499.9K $7.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2024-03-31 $4.3M -$3.7M $7.2K $7.2K — —

3. VAI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VAI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Valor Energy Incorporated (NASDAQ: VAI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $1.72 (-19.25% 1D, market cap $31.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, VAI ranks #793 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VAI compare to MRT and HTZ in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Rental/Leasing Companies), VAI carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 13.6%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MRT (Marti Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $178.1M) and HTZ (Hertz Global Holdings Inc) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $684.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, R leads on earnings multiple (21.5x) while R leads on capital efficiency (5.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VAI?

Per VAI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001711012), Valor Energy Incorporated generated $1.5M in revenue (-53.7% YoY), -$5.3M in net income, and -$1.6M in free cash flow against $5.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VAI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VAI last traded at $1.72 (-19.25% on volume of 53,019 shares), positioning the stock -21.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.19) and +11.69% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.54). Across its 52-week range of $0.83 to $2.91, VAI sits at the 42.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.51 to $1.93).

Direct Sub-Reports: VAI RQD Cockpit VAI 12M Forecast VAI Earnings & Move VAI Dividends & DRIP VAI Insiders & 13F VAI Whale Options VAI Profit Sankey VAI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VAI — Valor Energy Incorporated: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-03-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.72 (-19.25% 1D, market capitalization $31.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 13.6%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -5.09%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Rental/Leasing Companies industry. Reported revenue declined from $4.3M in FY 2023 to $1.5M in FY 2025, .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-31), Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) reported $1.5M in annual revenue (up from $3.3M in FY2024, -53.7% YoY) and -$5.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.3M revenue, -$3.7M net income) through FY2025, VAI scaled operating cash flow to -$1.6M and free cash flow to -$1.6M, backed by $5.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -5.09% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.83 – $2.91 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore — Sector and industry context is limited to Consumer Discretionary / Rental/Leasing Companies. Investors should watch for second-order effects tied to the Ohio AI-site deal, including whether a data-center conversion would alter the company's revenue mix, and whether financing needs for that conversion would pressure the thin balance sheet described in the forensic pillar.

  • Key Question #1: Can VAI sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Rental/Leasing Companies peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.5M and free cash flow of -$1.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is VAI's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

VAI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VAI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VAI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.72?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VAI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VAI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.53 (+18.8%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported cash rose to $3.5M in FY 2025 and the stock is up 2.86% from its 52-week low of $0.83, with news flow tied to an Ohio AI-site

Don't sleep on VAI's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Reported cash rose to $3.5M in FY 2025 and the stock is up 2.86% from its 52-week low of $0.83, with news flow tied to an Ohio AI-site deal.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (35/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 35/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $2.13 and keeping dry powder in case we test $1.98.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.60 (-24.9%)
Spot @ $2.13

Negative operating margin of -60%, ROIC of -35%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 point to weak economics and a fragile balance sheet.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short VAI above $2.13. Negative operating margin of -60%, ROIC of -35%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 point to weak economics and a fragile balance sheet.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20) and FCF yield (-5.09%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $2.91.

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