Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$304.00 +0.69% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $305.11

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 20% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $179.42B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UNP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $304.00 (+0.69% 1D, market cap $179.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, UNP ranks #24 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UNP compare to CSX and NSC in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Railroads), UNP carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 20.1%. By comparison, CSX (CSX Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 33.3x, ROIC 17.2%, cap $96.30B) and NSC (Norfolk Southern Corporation) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 26.8x, ROIC 13.0%, cap $76.86B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UNP leads on earnings multiple (25.1x) while UNP leads on capital efficiency (20.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UNP?
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Per UNP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000100885), Union Pacific Corporation generated $24.51B in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $7.14B in net income, and $5.50B in free cash flow against $69.70B in total assets and $23.05B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $305.09 (+0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 22.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510074
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk C+
Cash (15)Whales (17)SEC (14)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target
$385 Bull$326 Base$249 Bear
📬 FREE UNP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UNP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UNP SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22.4% FCF Margin ($5.50B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (66.2) create a -7 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
66
Grade B-$282.36+1.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
69
Grade B-$287.61+4.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
71
Grade B$299.88+1.4% Next Q
Current
74
Grade B$304.00+7.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UNP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, UNP faces multiple-compression risk if 25.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($287.19) or 200D SMA ($271.10) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($325.89) toward Bear Floor ($249.28).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UNP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UNP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±4.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (UNP)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for UNP.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating UNP & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on UNP
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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UNP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.41%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $297.8H $304.0L $297.8C $304.0VOL 1.99M
RES: $306.1SUP: $254.0SMA50: $287.2SMA200: $271.1
$321.6$298.2$274.8$251.3$227.9RES $306.1SUP $254.0$304.02026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UNP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
18.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UNP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UNP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UNP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UNP)

Industrials Rank #24 of 485 ⚔️ CSX vs UNP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (UNP vs. CSX, NSC, CP, CNI)

Industry: Railroads (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) ranks #24 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #4 by equity capitalization ($179.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UNP leads on earnings valuation at 25.1x trailing P/E, while UNP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.1% ROIC and — gross margin. UNP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UNP ACTIVE
Union Pacific Corporation
B 74/100 25.1x — 20.1% +0.69% $179.42B Benchmark Subject
CSX
CSX Corporation
C+ 67/100 33.3x — 17.2% -0.48% $96.30B /csx-vs-unp →
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
B 73/100 26.8x — 13.0% +0.13% $76.86B /nsc-vs-unp →
CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
C 63/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.48% $76.84B /cp-vs-unp →
CNI
Canadian National Railway Company
C+ 67/100 32.8x — 9.9% -0.30% $74.94B /cni-vs-unp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000100885

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) reported GAAP revenue of $24.51B (+1.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $24.25B , and +1.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $7.14B, operating cash flow of $9.29B, and free cash flow of $5.50B (-6.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UNP closed FY2025 with $69.70B in total assets against $23.05B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.31, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $24.51B $7.14B $9.29B $5.50B $69.70B $23.05B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $24.25B $6.75B $9.35B $5.89B $67.72B $22.87B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $24.12B $6.38B $8.38B $7.29B $98.68B $23.09B

3. UNP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UNP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $304.00 (+0.69% 1D, market cap $179.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, UNP ranks #24 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UNP compare to CSX and NSC in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Railroads), UNP carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 20.1%. By comparison, CSX (CSX Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 33.3x, ROIC 17.2%, cap $96.30B) and NSC (Norfolk Southern Corporation) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 26.8x, ROIC 13.0%, cap $76.86B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UNP leads on earnings multiple (25.1x) while UNP leads on capital efficiency (20.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UNP?

Per UNP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000100885), Union Pacific Corporation generated $24.51B in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $7.14B in net income, and $5.50B in free cash flow against $69.70B in total assets and $23.05B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UNP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UNP last traded at $304.00 (+0.69% on volume of 2,774,145 shares), positioning the stock +5.85% above its 50-day simple moving average ($287.19) and +12.14% above its 200-day simple moving average ($271.10). Across its 52-week range of $216.32 to $315.99, UNP sits at the 88.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($291.54 to $316.46).

UNP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is UNP's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for UNP.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 74/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

UNP — Union Pacific Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:09:11Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, UNP scores 74 out of 100 for a letter grade of B, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 (ROIC 20.1%; FCF yield 3.06%), Whale 13F Flow at 17/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 13/20 (Beta 1.03; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20 (Altman Z 4.31; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.17).

For a prospective investor, the strongest pillar is institutional flow (17/20), which the rating frames as accumulation and options positioning. The weakest pillar is macro regime fit (13/20), where the rating's own beta reading of 1.03 indicates market-like sensitivity. The cash-engine pillar carries a 3.06% FCF yield, which the source places against a P/E (TTM) of 25.1 and a forward P/E of 23.3; this implies the market is pricing a substantial premium to current cash generation, a valuation tradeoff an investor must weigh against the ROIC of 20.1%. The forensic pillar's Altman Z of 4.31 and Piotroski F of 6/9 describe a balance sheet the rating considers sound, though Debt/Equity of 1.17 signals meaningful leverage. Upside drivers implied by the data include the institutional and insider pillars; valuation and macro sensitivity are the principal offsets. This is an analytical reading of the rating, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
301.93$179.42B25.123.315.312.011.8%1.03$216.32 - $315.9920.1%

Business

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Railroads industry, per the profile section. The profile identifies the company as a railroad operator with a market capitalization of $179.4B. The source data does not describe specific products, customer segments, or revenue-generation mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 revenue was $24510.0M, indicating the scale of the operation.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$24510.0M$9846.0M$7138.0MN/A$5499.0M$1266.0M$23054.0M
FY 2024$24250.0M$9713.0M$6747.0MN/A$5894.0M$1016.0M$22871.2M
FY 2023$24119.0M$9082.0M$6379.0MN/A$7293.6MN/A$23091.6M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $24119.0M (FY 2023) to $24510.0M (FY 2025), and net income rose from $6379.0M to $7138.0M over the same period. Per the market data, operating margin is 40.2%, net margin is 29.1%, and ROIC is 20.1%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.31 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9. Debt/Equity is 1.17 per the RQD rating. Free cash flow declined from $7293.6M (FY 2023) to $5499.0M (FY 2025) per the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, six items are listed, all related to UNP:

  • A Yahoo Finance Singapore market report (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • A Seeking Alpha piece titled "Union Pacific: Not Too Late To Buy Now" (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • A TradingView piece on the company's upcoming Q3 earnings report, flagged GREEN as a CATALYST, asking whether a beat is in store.
  • A Motley Fool piece, "Union Pacific Corporation: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors" (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • A Yahoo Finance piece on the company's economic moat (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • A MarketBeat item on an average analyst price target (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).

The only item flagged as a catalyst is the Q3 earnings preview. The remaining items are generic market-wire coverage. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply_chain is "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The only sector context provided is the classification as Industrials / Railroads. An investor should watch the Q3 earnings event flagged as a catalyst, but the source data does not identify the specific ripple channels through which that event would propagate.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst data: NONE. The source does not provide a consensus rating. The MarketBeat headline references an average price target of $325.72, but this figure appears only in a headline and is not corroborated in the analyst data section.

Holders: NONE. No SEC Form 4 insider, 13F whale, or Congressional trade detail is provided in the holders section. The RQD rating references institutional accumulation and insider cluster flow as pillar inputs, but the underlying transactions are not itemized in source data.

Open Questions

  • What drove the decline in free cash flow from $7293.6M (FY 2023) to $5499.0M (FY 2025), and does the trend continue?
  • The EPS figures in the financials are listed as N/A for all three periods; what is the reported per-share earnings history?
  • Which specific insider and 13F transactions underlie the Whale Flow and Insider Conviction pillar scores?
  • What is the Q3 earnings consensus and whether the TradingView-flagged beat expectation is supported by data?
  • What are the company's specific products, customer concentration, and revenue mix, given that the source describes only sector classification?

UNP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UNP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UNP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $304.00?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UNP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UNP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $356.28 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is UNP (B • RQD 74/100) a Buy at $301.93?

Welcome to the UNP (Union Pacific Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 74/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Railroads. Bulls point to capital efficiency (20.1% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $247.58 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $301.93

Pump the brakes on UNP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on UNP, but look at what you are paying: 25.1x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Union Pacific Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $365.34 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $301.93

UNP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on UNP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Railroads and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $301.93 (52-wk range $216.32 - $315.99), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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