UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$134.47 -1.24% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $133.91

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $10.21B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UMBF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: UMBF) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $134.47 (-1.24% 1D, market cap $10.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, UMBF ranks #163 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UMBF compare to SSB and WTFC in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), UMBF carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.7x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.5%. By comparison, SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 12.9x, ROIC 3.0%, cap $10.20B) and WTFC (Wintrust Financial Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $10.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BPOP leads on earnings multiple (12.1x) while CFR leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UMBF?
β–Ό

Per UMBF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000101382), UMB Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $702.4M in net income, and $978.1M in free cash flow against $73.09B in total assets and $29.43B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $133.92 (-0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 24.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 56.4% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C+
025507510067
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C Β· Rk B-
Cash (14)Whales (10)SEC (15)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
$165 Bull$140 Base$109 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE UMBF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UMBF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY UMBF SCORES 67/100 (C+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$128.86+3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$132.91-0.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$132.34+1.6% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$134.47+1.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (59) β†’ C+ (67)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UMBF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, UMBF faces multiple-compression risk if 14.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($135.20) or 200D SMA ($131.50) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($139.92) toward Bear Floor ($109.14).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UMBFβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œUMBF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±5.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (UMBF)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for UMBF.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating UMBF & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on UMBF
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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UMBF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.91%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $136.2H $136.2L $134.5C $134.5VOL 616.2K
RES: $165.7SUP: $121.2SMA50: $135.2SMA200: $131.5
$155.8$145.4$134.9$124.5$114.0RES $165.7SUP $121.2$134.52026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UMBF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
6.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UMBF today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UMBF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UMBF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UMBF)

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UMBF vs. SSB, WTFC, BPOP, CFR)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) ranks #163 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #181 by equity capitalization ($10.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BPOP leads on earnings valuation at 12.1x trailing P/E, while CFR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and β€” gross margin. WTFC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with UMBF at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UMBF ACTIVE
UMB Financial Corporation
C+ 67/100 14.7x β€” 2.5% -1.24% $10.21B Benchmark Subject
SSB
SouthState Bank Corporation
C- 60/100 12.9x β€” 3.0% -0.88% $10.20B /ssb-vs-umbf β†’
WTFC
Wintrust Financial Corporation
B- 70/100 12.6x β€” 3.1% -1.13% $10.28B /wtfc-vs-umbf β†’
BPOP
Popular Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.1x β€” 3.1% -1.19% $9.99B /bpop-vs-umbf β†’
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.
C- 60/100 15.1x β€” 3.4% -0.16% $9.80B /cfr-vs-umbf β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000101382

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $702.4M, operating cash flow of $1.03B, and free cash flow of $978.1M (+376.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, UMBF closed FY2025 with $73.09B in total assets against $29.43B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $702.4M $1.03B $978.1M $73.09B $29.43B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $441.2M $225.3M $205.3M $50.41B $21.12B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $350.0M $472.6M $472.6M $5.69B $1.33B

3. UMBF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UMBF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: UMBF) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $134.47 (-1.24% 1D, market cap $10.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, UMBF ranks #163 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UMBF compare to SSB and WTFC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), UMBF carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.7x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.5%. By comparison, SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 12.9x, ROIC 3.0%, cap $10.20B) and WTFC (Wintrust Financial Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $10.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BPOP leads on earnings multiple (12.1x) while CFR leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UMBF?

Per UMBF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000101382), UMB Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $702.4M in net income, and $978.1M in free cash flow against $73.09B in total assets and $29.43B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UMBF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UMBF last traded at $134.47 (-1.24% on volume of 616,164 shares), positioning the stock -0.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($135.20) and +2.26% above its 200-day simple moving average ($131.50). Across its 52-week range of $103.38 to $153.32, UMBF sits at the 62.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.1% ($127.61 to $141.33).

UMBF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is UMBF's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for UMBF.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 67/100 (C+) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

UMBF β€” UMB Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:25Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, UMBF scores 71 out of 100, a letter grade of B-, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy β€” Sound Institutional Accumulation." The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores 14/20, with ROIC of 2.5% and FCF yield of 9.46%; for an investor, the high FCF yield relative to the low ROIC suggests cash generation is strong relative to the market value while capital efficiency on the invested base is modest. The Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 14/20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning; this indicates supportive institutional interest but is not a measure of any specific holder's conviction. The Insider Conviction pillar scores 15/20 based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the highest-weighted pillar in the set, which signals a measure of insider-level alignment per the rating methodology. The Macro Regime Fit pillar scores 13/20, with beta of 1.02 and sector sensitivity, implying the stock has moved roughly in line with the broader market and is exposed to sector-level swings. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 15/20, supported by Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 8/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5. For a prospective investor, the upside drivers are the cash yield, the institutional accumulation signal, and a clean forensic profile; the valuation tradeoff is that EV/EBITDA of 33.4 sits well above the P/E figures, and the low ROIC limits the case for compounding at the same rate as the cash yield implies.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$136.16$10.34B14.713.733.49.251.31%1.02$103.38 - $153.322.5%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$828.8M$702.4MN/A$978.1M$7772.0M$29430.2M
FY 2024$0.0M$520.7M$441.2MN/A$205.3M$8448.7M$21124.4M
FY 2023$0.0M$413.0M$350.0MN/A$472.6MN/A$1330.9M

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $350.0M in FY 2023 to $702.4M in FY 2025, and operating income from $413.0M to $828.8M over the same span. Per the market data, operating margin is 29.6%, net margin is 24.3%, and ROIC is 2.5%. The Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 are cited in the Roarable RQD rating, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 is also from that section. Reported debt rose from $1330.9M (FY 2023) to $29430.2M (FY 2025) per the SEC financials, which is a material change in leverage that the rating's Debt/Equity figure does not reconcile in the source data.

Open Questions

  • What drove the jump in reported debt from $1330.9M in FY 2023 to $29430.2M in FY 2025, and how does this reconcile with the Debt/Equity of 0.5 cited in the rating?
  • Why does the company report $0.0M revenue across all periods, and what revenue line should be used to assess top-line growth?
  • What did the 2026 Q3 results disclose, given the earnings call presentation is listed but its figures are not in the source data?
  • What is the composition of the Form 4 and 13F flows underlying the insider and whale pillar scores?
  • What is the basis for the EV/EBITDA of 33.4 relative to a P/E of 14.7, given the source does not provide EBITDA components?

UMBF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to UMBF Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UMBF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $134.47?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UMBF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UMBF:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $160.67 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is UMBF (B- β€’ RQD 71/100) a Buy at $136.16?

Welcome to the UMBF (UMB Financial Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 71/100 (Roarable Buy β€” Sound Institutional Accumulation) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $107.57 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $136.16

Pump the brakes on UMBF β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on UMBF, but look at what you are paying: 14.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless UMB Financial Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $155.22 (+14.0%)
Spot @ $136.16

UMBF cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on UMBF, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $136.16 (52-wk range $103.38 - $153.32), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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