What is TPL's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for TPL.

PR (72) EXE (65) OVV (74) APA (82) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$329.95 -0.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $329.01

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $22.88B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE: TPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $329.95 (-0.52% 1D, market cap $22.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, TPL ranks #64 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TPL compare to PR and EXE in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), TPL carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.9%. By comparison, PR (Permian Resources Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.5%, cap $21.79B) and EXE (Expand Energy Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $20.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while APA leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPL?

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Per TPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001811074), Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated $798.2M in revenue (+13.1% YoY), $481.4M in net income, and $510.0M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $74.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $329.03 (-0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 63.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TPL SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 63.9% FCF Margin ($510.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$354.57-2.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$344.31-3.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$331.93-0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C$329.95+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TPL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, TPL faces multiple-compression risk if 47.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($350.48) or 200D SMA ($401.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($340.34) toward Bear Floor ($265.47).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±5.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TPL)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TPL.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TPL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TPL
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.77%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $328.0H $331.7L $328.0C $330.0VOL 481.1K

RES: $352.6SUP: $317.0SMA50: $350.5SMA200: $401.7

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TPL Butterfly Map → + Track TPL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

34.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TPL)

Energy Rank #64 of 211 ⚔️ PR vs TPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (TPL vs. PR, EXE, OVV, APA)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) ranks #64 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #42 by equity capitalization ($22.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EXE leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while APA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.6% ROIC and — gross margin. APA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with TPL at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TPL ACTIVE Texas Pacific Land Corporation	C	65/100	47.0x	—	25.9%	-0.52%	$22.88B	Benchmark Subject
PR Permian Resources Corporation	B	72/100	—	—	8.5%	-5.61%	$21.79B	/pr-vs-tpl →
EXE Expand Energy Corporation	C	65/100	11.5x	—	8.5%	-1.20%	$20.91B	/exe-vs-tpl →
OVV Ovintiv Inc.	B	74/100	16.3x	—	5.7%	-6.66%	$20.53B	/ovv-vs-tpl →
APA APA Corporation	A-	82/100	12.6x	—	26.6%	-7.57%	$18.51B	/apa-vs-tpl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001811074

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) reported GAAP revenue of $798.2M (+13.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $705.8M , and +26.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $481.4M, operating cash flow of $545.9M, and free cash flow of $510.0M (+11.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TPL closed FY2025 with $1.62B in total assets against $74.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$798.2M	$481.4M	$545.9M	$510.0M	$1.62B	$74.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$705.8M	$454.0M	$490.7M	$458.9M	$1.25B	$52.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$631.6M	$405.6M	$418.3M	$389.9M	$12.44B	$2.91B

3. TPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TPL compare to PR and EXE in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPL?

Where is TPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TPL last traded at $329.95 (-0.52% on volume of 455,524 shares), positioning the stock -5.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($350.48) and -17.86% below its 200-day simple moving average ($401.67). Across its 52-week range of $269.23 to $547.20, TPL sits at the 21.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($310.81 to $349.09).

Direct Sub-Reports: TPL RQD Cockpit TPL 12M Forecast TPL Earnings & Move TPL Dividends & DRIP TPL Insiders & 13F TPL Whale Options TPL Profit Sankey TPL News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TPL — Texas Pacific Land Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 65/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $329.95 (-0.52% 1D, market capitalization $22.88B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 25.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 74.2%, and free cash flow yield of 2.25%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.02x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 26.00, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.05x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Oil & Gas Production industry, profile section. The profile identifies the company as an Energy issuer with a market capitalization of $22.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) reported $798.2M in annual revenue (up from $705.8M in FY2024, +13.1% YoY) and $481.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($631.6M revenue, $405.6M net income) through FY2025, TPL scaled operating cash flow to $545.9M and free cash flow to $510.0M, backed by $1.62B in total assets against $74.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 65/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $269.23 – $547.20 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 47.0x trailing P/E and 36.2x EV/EBITDA against 74.2% operating margins and a 1.02x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), TPL carries a macro regime beta of 1.02 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: Can TPL sustain or expand its 74.2% operating margin and 25.9% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $798.2M and free cash flow of $510.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $74.0M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is TPL's 39.5x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.02x)?

TPL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TPL Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Texas Pacific Land (TPL): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?

Yahoo Finance report covering Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Texas Pacific Land: Several Bullish Narratives, One Ticker (Rating Upgrade) (NYSE:TPL)

Seeking Alpha report covering Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Texas Pacific Land Corporation Sets Dates for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Yahoo Finance report covering Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

10% owner Horizon Kinetics buys Texas Pacific Land stock for $1,363

Investing.com report covering Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Texas Pacific Land Corporation Estimates – NYSE:TPL

TradingView report covering Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE www.debelegger.nl • 1d ago

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Stock Price, Chart & Analysis

www.debelegger.nl report covering Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Texas Pacific Land seeks to redomesticate to Texas from Delaware (TPL:NYSE)

Seeking Alpha report covering Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Jim Cramer Draws a Line Between Texas Pacific Land (TPL) and Chevron (CVX)

Yahoo Finance report covering Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TPL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $329.95?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TPL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $388.07 (+17.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Cash engine is strong: ROIC of 25.9% and a 19/20 fundamental pillar, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and Debt/Equity of 0.05.

The street is overcomplicating Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL). Cash engine is strong: ROIC of 25.9% and a 19/20 fundamental pillar, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and Debt/Equity of 0.05.. With an RQD score of 65/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $358.21.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 65/100 quality, though with 1.02 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $331.68 and keeping dry powder in case we test $308.46.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $275.29 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $331.68

Valuation is rich, with P/E (TTM) of 47 and EV/EBITDA of 36.2, while FCF yield is only 2.25% and institutional-flow pillar scores 5 of

Careful chasing TPL at $331.68. Valuation is rich, with P/E (TTM) of 47 and EV/EBITDA of 36.2, while FCF yield is only 2.25% and institutional-flow pillar scores 5 of 20.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 74.2%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $275.29 on multiple compression.