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Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$329.95 -0.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $329.01

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $22.88B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TPL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE: TPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $329.95 (-0.52% 1D, market cap $22.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, TPL ranks #64 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TPL compare to PR and EXE in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), TPL carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.9%. By comparison, PR (Permian Resources Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.5%, cap $21.79B) and EXE (Expand Energy Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $20.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while APA leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPL?
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Per TPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001811074), Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated $798.2M in revenue (+13.1% YoY), $481.4M in net income, and $510.0M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $74.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $329.03 (-0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 63.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+
Cash (19)Whales (6)SEC (16)Macro (11)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
$575 Bull$340 Base$265 Bear
📬 FREE TPL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TPL SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 63.9% FCF Margin ($510.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
73
Grade B$354.57-2.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$344.31-3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$331.93-0.6% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$329.95+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TPL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, TPL faces multiple-compression risk if 47.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($350.48) or 200D SMA ($401.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($340.34) toward Bear Floor ($265.47).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TPL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $329.95: 30.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $265.47
$8,046
$-1,954 (-19.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $340.34
$10,315
+$315 (+3.1%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $574.56
$17,414
+$7,414 (+74.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$35474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$54069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$30358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TPL Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.77%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $328.0H $331.7L $328.0C $330.0VOL 481.1K
RES: $352.6SUP: $317.0SMA50: $350.5SMA200: $401.7
$490.7$445.8$400.8$355.8$310.8RES $352.6SUP $317.0$330.02026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TPL Butterfly Map → + Track TPL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
34.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TPL)

Energy Rank #64 of 211 ⚔️ PR vs TPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (TPL vs. PR, EXE, OVV, APA)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) ranks #64 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #42 by equity capitalization ($22.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EXE leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while APA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.6% ROIC and — gross margin. APA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with TPL at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TPL ACTIVE
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
C 65/100 47.0x — 25.9% -0.52% $22.88B Benchmark Subject
PR
Permian Resources Corporation
B 72/100 — — 8.5% -5.61% $21.79B /pr-vs-tpl →
EXE
Expand Energy Corporation
C 65/100 11.5x — 8.5% -1.20% $20.91B /exe-vs-tpl →
OVV
Ovintiv Inc.
B 74/100 16.3x — 5.7% -6.66% $20.53B /ovv-vs-tpl →
APA
APA Corporation
A- 82/100 12.6x — 26.6% -7.57% $18.51B /apa-vs-tpl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001811074 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) reported GAAP revenue of $798.2M (+13.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $705.8M , and +26.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $481.4M, operating cash flow of $545.9M, and free cash flow of $510.0M (+11.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TPL closed FY2025 with $1.62B in total assets against $74.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $798.2M $481.4M $545.9M $510.0M $1.62B $74.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $705.8M $454.0M $490.7M $458.9M $1.25B $52.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $631.6M $405.6M $418.3M $389.9M $12.44B $2.91B

3. TPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE: TPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $329.95 (-0.52% 1D, market cap $22.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, TPL ranks #64 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TPL compare to PR and EXE in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), TPL carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.9%. By comparison, PR (Permian Resources Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.5%, cap $21.79B) and EXE (Expand Energy Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $20.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while APA leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPL?

Per TPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001811074), Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated $798.2M in revenue (+13.1% YoY), $481.4M in net income, and $510.0M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $74.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TPL last traded at $329.95 (-0.52% on volume of 455,524 shares), positioning the stock -5.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($350.48) and -17.86% below its 200-day simple moving average ($401.67). Across its 52-week range of $269.23 to $547.20, TPL sits at the 21.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($310.81 to $349.09).

Direct Sub-Reports: TPL RQD Cockpit TPL 12M Forecast TPL Earnings & Move TPL Dividends & DRIP TPL Insiders & 13F TPL Whale Options TPL Profit Sankey TPL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TPL — Texas Pacific Land Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 65/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $329.95 (-0.52% 1D, market capitalization $22.88B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 25.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 74.2%, and free cash flow yield of 2.25%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.02x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 26.00, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.05x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Oil & Gas Production industry, profile section. The profile identifies the company as an Energy issuer with a market capitalization of $22.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) reported $798.2M in annual revenue (up from $705.8M in FY2024, +13.1% YoY) and $481.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($631.6M revenue, $405.6M net income) through FY2025, TPL scaled operating cash flow to $545.9M and free cash flow to $510.0M, backed by $1.62B in total assets against $74.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 65/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $269.23 – $547.20 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 47.0x trailing P/E and 36.2x EV/EBITDA against 74.2% operating margins and a 1.02x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), TPL carries a macro regime beta of 1.02 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can TPL sustain or expand its 74.2% operating margin and 25.9% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $798.2M and free cash flow of $510.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $74.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TPL's 39.5x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.02x)?

TPL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TPL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TPL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $329.95?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TPL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TPL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $388.07 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Cash engine is strong: ROIC of 25.9% and a 19/20 fundamental pillar, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and Debt/Equity of 0.05.

The street is overcomplicating Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL). Cash engine is strong: ROIC of 25.9% and a 19/20 fundamental pillar, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and Debt/Equity of 0.05.. With an RQD score of 65/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $358.21.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 65/100 quality, though with 1.02 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $331.68 and keeping dry powder in case we test $308.46.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $275.29 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $331.68

Valuation is rich, with P/E (TTM) of 47 and EV/EBITDA of 36.2, while FCF yield is only 2.25% and institutional-flow pillar scores 5 of

Careful chasing TPL at $331.68. Valuation is rich, with P/E (TTM) of 47 and EV/EBITDA of 36.2, while FCF yield is only 2.25% and institutional-flow pillar scores 5 of 20.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 74.2%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $275.29 on multiple compression.

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