What is APA's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

APA's 12-month base price target is $54.09 (range $40.03 to $63.83), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Energy / APA

VNOM (64) OVV (74) EXE (65) PR (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

APA Corporation (APA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell APA stock right now?

APA Corporation (APA) currently earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy — BUY) with 82/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 27% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

$48.82 -7.57% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $48.27

APA Corporation (APA) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 82/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 27% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE A- • BUY Cap $18.51B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on APA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is APA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, APA Corporation (NASDAQ: APA) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 82/100 at a spot price of $48.82 (-7.57% 1D, market cap $18.51B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, APA ranks #5 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does APA compare to VNOM and OVV in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), APA carries a Roarable A- (82/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 26.6%. By comparison, VNOM (Viper Energy Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.7%, cap $17.13B) and OVV (Ovintiv Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 16.3x, ROIC 5.7%, cap $20.53B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while APA leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APA?

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Per APA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001841666), APA Corporation generated $8.64B in revenue (+26.3% YoY), $1.43B in net income, and $4.54B in free cash flow against $17.76B in total assets and $4.16B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $48.27 (-1.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 52.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 82/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 7% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.9% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • A-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+10.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for APA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (82/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY APA SCORES 82/100 (A-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 6 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$47.37+4.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$49.63+3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade A-$51.11-4.5% Next Q

Current

Grade A-$48.82+8.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (74) → A- (82)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the APA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 82/100 (A-) score, APA faces multiple-compression risk if 12.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($46.12) or 200D SMA ($38.12) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($54.09) toward Bear Floor ($40.03).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $APA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “APA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 82%NO 18%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

69.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.04>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE87% OF RANGE

L: $22$48.82H: $53

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: A+RQD 37 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 31 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on APA

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (70)

26.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 22.00% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 2.04 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (90)

37/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 17/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like APA

✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (APA Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

APA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.18%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $51.51H $52.82L $48.82C $48.82VOL 4.43M

RES: $53.43SUP: $45.43SMA50: $46.12SMA200: $38.12

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

APA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 APA Butterfly Map → + Track APA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

3.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +26.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on APA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for APA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for APA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (APA)

Energy Rank #5 of 211 ⚔️ VNOM vs APA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (APA vs. VNOM, OVV, EXE, PR)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, APA Corporation (APA) ranks #5 by composite RQD confidence (82/100, grade A-) and #49 by equity capitalization ($18.51B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EXE leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while APA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.6% ROIC and — gross margin. APA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 82/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
APA ACTIVE APA Corporation	A-	82/100	12.6x	—	26.6%	-7.57%	$18.51B	Benchmark Subject
VNOM Viper Energy Inc.	C	64/100	—	—	-1.7%	-4.11%	$17.13B	/vnom-vs-apa →
OVV Ovintiv Inc.	B	74/100	16.3x	—	5.7%	-6.66%	$20.53B	/ovv-vs-apa →
EXE Expand Energy Corporation	C	65/100	11.5x	—	8.5%	-1.20%	$20.91B	/exe-vs-apa →
PR Permian Resources Corporation	B	72/100	—	—	8.5%	-5.61%	$21.79B	/pr-vs-apa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001841666 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), APA Corporation (APA) reported GAAP revenue of $8.64B (+26.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.84B , and -16.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.43B, operating cash flow of $4.54B, and free cash flow of $4.54B (+25.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, APA closed FY2025 with $17.76B in total assets against $4.16B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.04, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$8.64B	$1.43B	$4.54B	$4.54B	$17.76B	$4.16B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$6.84B	$804.0M	$3.62B	$3.62B	$19.39B	$4.54B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$10.35B	$2.85B	$3.13B	$3.13B	$9.93B	$2.32B

3. APA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is APA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does APA compare to VNOM and OVV in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APA?

Where is APA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

APA last traded at $48.82 (-7.57% on volume of 6,970,875 shares), positioning the stock +5.85% above its 50-day simple moving average ($46.12) and +28.07% above its 200-day simple moving average ($38.12). Across its 52-week range of $21.63 to $52.96, APA sits at the 86.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($45.99 to $51.65).

Direct Sub-Reports: APA RQD Cockpit APA 12M Forecast APA Earnings & Move APA Dividends & DRIP APA Insiders & 13F APA Whale Options APA Profit Sankey APA News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 82/100 (A-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

APA — APA Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

APA Corporation (APA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 82/100, corresponding to a A- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $48.82 (-7.57% 1D, market capitalization $18.51B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 26.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 61.1%, and free cash flow yield of 22.00%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (18/20) + Insider Conviction (19/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (17/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.04x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.04, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.59x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

.0B. — for product detail, customer base, or specific revenue-generation mechanics. The market data reports a gross margin of 0% and an operating margin of 61.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), APA Corporation (APA) reported $8.64B in annual revenue (up from $6.84B in FY2024, +26.3% YoY) and $1.43B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($10.35B revenue, $2.85B net income) through FY2025, APA scaled operating cash flow to $4.54B and free cash flow to $4.54B, backed by $17.76B in total assets against $4.16B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (A- • RQD 82/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 18/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $21.63 – $52.96 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 12.6x trailing P/E and 6.4x EV/EBITDA against 61.1% operating margins and a 1.04x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), APA carries a macro regime beta of 1.04 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: Can APA sustain or expand its 61.1% operating margin and 26.6% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.64B and free cash flow of $4.54B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $4.16B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is APA's 11.7x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.04x)?

APA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for APA Corporation (APA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to APA Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 22h ago

APA Corporation (APA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering APA Corporation (APA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Barchart.com • 1d ago

Earnings Preview: What To Expect From APA Corporation's Report

Barchart.com report covering APA Corporation (APA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

APA Corporation (APA) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why

Yahoo Finance report covering APA Corporation (APA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

APA Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's How It Will Fare

TradingView report covering APA Corporation (APA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

5 Dividend Stocks Going Ex-Dividend This Week. Which Payouts Are Safest?

24/7 Wall St. report covering APA Corporation (APA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Quiver Quantitative • 1d ago

APA Corporation Provides Supplemental Third-Quarter 2026 Financial and Operational Information

Quiver Quantitative report covering APA Corporation (APA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com UK • 1d ago

Apa stock hits 52-week high at 50.46 USD By Investing.com

Investing.com UK report covering APA Corporation (APA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

APA Corporation (APA) Hit a 52 Week High, Can the Run Continue?

Yahoo Finance report covering APA Corporation (APA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

APA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $48.82?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON APA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $68.14 (+29.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The Roarable RQD rating scores 83 with 19/20 on insider conviction and 22% FCF yield, with free cash flow rising from $3.62B to $4545

The street is overcomplicating APA Corporation (APA). The Roarable RQD rating scores 83 with 19/20 on insider conviction and 22% FCF yield, with free cash flow rising from $3.62B to $4.54B across FY 2024 to FY 2025.. With an RQD score of 82/100 (A-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $57.05.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 18/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $52.82 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Energy.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $44.37 (-16.0%)

Spot @ $52.82

Valuation & margin reality check on APA at $52.82 before chasing here

I respect the product at APA Corporation, but the stock at $52.82 is a different story. Valuation & margin reality check on APA at $52.82 before chasing here. FCF yield is 22.0% and RQD sits at 82/100 (A-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?