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Stock Ratings / Technology / TOST / options
LDOS (77) RDDT (63) WIT (68) CACI (68) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Toast Inc. (TOST) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$31.68 +0.57% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.65

Toast Inc. (TOST) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $18.31B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TOST Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TOST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Toast Inc. (NYSE: TOST) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $31.68 (+0.57% 1D, market cap $18.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, TOST ranks #114 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TOST compare to LDOS and RDDT in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), TOST carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 53.2x, gross margin of 25.9%, and ROIC of 15.8%. By comparison, LDOS (Leidos Holdings Inc.) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 22.5%, cap $17.94B) and RDDT (Reddit Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 47.0x, ROIC 16.6%, cap $17.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LDOS leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while LDOS leads on capital efficiency (22.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TOST?
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Per TOST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001650164), Toast Inc. generated $6.15B in revenue (+24.1% YoY), $342.0M in net income, and $384.1M in free cash flow against $3.15B in total assets and $459.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (26% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 53x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.65 (-0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 6.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B
Cash (15)Whales (11)SEC (18)Macro (11)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target
$42 Bull$33 Base$26 Bear
📬 FREE TOST RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TOST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TOST SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 13.05 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.2% FCF Margin ($384.1M FCF) & 25.9% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50.5) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$29.85+9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$32.54-1.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$31.94-0.8% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$31.68+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TOST Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, TOST faces multiple-compression risk if 53.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 53x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 23.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($31.74) or 200D SMA ($29.31) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($32.96) toward Bear Floor ($25.71).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TOST• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TOST Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±7%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TOST)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TOST.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TOST & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TOST
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TOST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.72%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-03O $31.50H $31.68L $31.50C $31.68VOL 8.66M
RES: $32.96SUP: $29.13SMA50: $31.74SMA200: $29.31
$38.25$33.91$29.58$25.25$20.92RES $32.96SUP $29.13$31.682026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TOST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TOST Butterfly Map → + Track TOST →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
38.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +24.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TOST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TOST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TOST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TOST)

Technology Rank #114 of 714 ⚔️ LDOS vs TOST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (TOST vs. LDOS, RDDT, WIT, CACI)

Industry: EDP Services (163 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Toast Inc. (TOST) ranks #114 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #111 by equity capitalization ($18.31B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LDOS leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while LDOS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.5% ROIC and 17.7% gross margin. LDOS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with TOST at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TOST ACTIVE
Toast Inc.
C+ 67/100 53.2x 25.9% 15.8% +0.57% $18.31B Benchmark Subject
LDOS
Leidos Holdings Inc.
B+ 77/100 12.2x 17.7% 22.5% +1.39% $17.94B /ldos-vs-tost →
RDDT
Reddit Inc.
C 63/100 47.0x 91.2% 16.6% -29.22% $17.65B /rddt-vs-tost →
WIT
Wipro Limited
C+ 68/100 21.7x — 14.9% +2.37% $21.39B /wit-vs-tost →
CACI
CACI International Inc.
C+ 68/100 30.0x — 9.1% +0.19% $15.01B /caci-vs-tost →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001650164

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Toast Inc. (TOST) reported GAAP revenue of $6.15B (+24.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.96B , and +59.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $342.0M, operating cash flow of $661.0M, and free cash flow of $384.1M (+180.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TOST closed FY2025 with $3.15B in total assets against $459.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 13.05, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $6.15B $342.0M $661.0M $384.1M $3.15B $459.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.96B $19.0M $360.0M $136.8M $2.41B $388.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.87B -$246.0M $135.0M -$38.9M $10.01B $2.34B

3. TOST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TOST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Toast Inc. (NYSE: TOST) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $31.68 (+0.57% 1D, market cap $18.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, TOST ranks #114 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TOST compare to LDOS and RDDT in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), TOST carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 53.2x, gross margin of 25.9%, and ROIC of 15.8%. By comparison, LDOS (Leidos Holdings Inc.) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 22.5%, cap $17.94B) and RDDT (Reddit Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 47.0x, ROIC 16.6%, cap $17.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LDOS leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while LDOS leads on capital efficiency (22.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TOST?

Per TOST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001650164), Toast Inc. generated $6.15B in revenue (+24.1% YoY), $342.0M in net income, and $384.1M in free cash flow against $3.15B in total assets and $459.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (26% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 53x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TOST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TOST last traded at $31.68 (+0.57% on volume of 8,659,191 shares), positioning the stock -0.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($31.74) and +8.09% above its 200-day simple moving average ($29.31). Across its 52-week range of $22.26 to $39.67, TOST sits at the 54.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($29.46 to $33.90).

Direct Sub-Reports: TOST RQD Cockpit TOST 12M Forecast TOST Earnings & Move TOST Dividends & DRIP TOST Insiders & 13F TOST Whale Options TOST Profit Sankey TOST News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TOST — Toast Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:02Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TOST scores 67 out of 100, a C+ grade, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 15 of 20 (ROIC 15.8%; FCF yield 2.11%), Whale/13F Flow at 11 of 20, Insider Conviction at 12 of 20, Macro Regime Fit at 11 of 20 (Beta 1.14), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18 of 20 (Altman Z 13.05; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.2). The strongest pillar is the forensic balance sheet, which points to low solvency risk. The weakest pillars are institutional flow and macro/sector fit, which are the areas where the rating sees the least confirmation. For a prospective investor, the upside driver is the balance-sheet strength and a ROIC of 15.8%. The valuation tradeoff is significant: per the market data, the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 53.2 and an EV/EBITDA of 32.8, and FCF yield is only 2.11%, so much of the expected growth is already priced in. The rating's "Watch for Breakout" label implies the stock needs a catalyst to move out of neutral territory. This is analytical context, not personalized advice.

Business

Toast Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector, within the EDP Services industry. its market capitalization is $18.2B. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 revenue was $6.15B, indicating a substantial operating base.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items, all tied to TOST. Two are tagged CATALYST (green): a Yahoo Finance piece titled "Why Is Toast (TOST) Stock Soaring Today" and a Yahoo Finance piece on the stock dropping despite market gains. Four are tagged MARKET WIRE (yellow), including a StockInvest.us forecast, a Stocktwits item on a post-earnings slip, a Yahoo Finance piece on possible undervaluation tied to new AI tools, and a Yahoo Finance trending-stock piece. The headlines are mixed: they reference both a rally and a decline, and the summaries are generic and do not state specific earnings figures or deal terms. The Stocktwits headline references a post-earnings decline, which is a risk watch item. The AI-tools headline is a potential catalyst but is unverified in the source data. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists supply chain as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals, so no upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or bottlenecks can be identified from the source data.

Open Questions

  • What share of the FY 2025 revenue and profit comes from which products or customers, and how durable is that mix?
  • What drove the operating income swing from $-287.0M in FY 2023 to $292.0M in FY 2025, and how much of it is repeatable?
  • What is the basis of the AI-tools catalyst referenced in the news wire, and what revenue or margin effect has been quantified?
  • Why are EPS values reported as N/A for all three fiscal years when TTM EPS is 0.59?
  • What is the institutional (13F) and insider position, given that the RQD flow and insider pillars score 11 and 12 of 20 without supporting holder data?

TOST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Toast Inc. (TOST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TOST Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TOST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.68?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TOST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TOST:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $41.50 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 13.05, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.2) and reported debt fell from $2343.2M to $459.4M whi

Don't sleep on TOST's setup in Technology. Forensic balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 13.05, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.2) and reported debt fell from $2343.2M to $459.4M while cash rose to $1353.0M.. Beta of 1.14 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (67/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 11/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $31.68 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Technology.

CR CreditSpread_Watch Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $26.29 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $31.68

Valuation & margin reality check on TOST at $31.68 before chasing here

Fading this rally in TOST at $31.68. Valuation & margin reality check on TOST at $31.68 before chasing here. With a beta of 1.14 and the stock sitting at $31.68 (52-wk range $22.26–$39.67), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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